Grouchy-Snakebite
0x0af631ccda2de449fab29c232dedc5f5be732eff
Wallet digest
Activity score
38/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
16
Open notional
$5.43
Total PnL
$-7.91
Realised
$-0.03
Win rate
0%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 16- NO
Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?
1 shares @ 88.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.14
$0.14
- NO
Will "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of July 4?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.13
$0.00
- NO
Will Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.11
$0.00
- NO
Will the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.50 on June 30, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.03
$0.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C or below on June 30?
1 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$1.02
$0.00
- YES
Will White House post 200+ posts from March 24 to March 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-2.63
- YES
Will annual inflation increase by between 36% and 38.9% in December?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.59
- YES
Will the total number of TSA passengers for December 1-7 be less than 14,000,000?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 7, 2025$0.00
$-0.59
- YES
Will Solana dip to $30 in January?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.57
- YES
Will Jessie Bates III lead the NFL in interceptions this season?
1 shares @ 50.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-0.55
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30?$7.88Jun 29, 04:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Claude Code Commits be less than 500.0k on June 30?$9.00Jun 29, 04:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of July 4?$8.86Jun 29, 04:23 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Ornn H100 Index be at least $3.50 on June 30, 2026?$1.03Jun 29, 04:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "Be Her - Ella Langley" be the Billboard Hot 100 #1 song for the week of July 4?$10.00Jun 29, 04:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C or below on June 30?$10.97Jun 29, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?$1.00Jun 29, 04:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Buenos Aires be 8°C or below on June 30?$12.00Jun 29, 04:11 UTC
- REDEEMMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?$1.00Jun 10, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on May 28?$1.06Jun 10, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?$1.10Jun 10, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.11Jun 10, 10:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.36Jun 10, 10:38 UTC
- TRADESELLMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?$3.99May 28, 17:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?$3.68May 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYMojtaba Khamenei leaves Iran by May 31, 2026?$5.00May 28, 17:09 UTC
- TRADESELLS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on May 28?$4.91May 28, 17:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Natural Gas (NG) hit (HIGH) $4.00 in May?$4.80May 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $775 on May 28?$6.00May 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best Math AI model at the end of May 2026?$1.03May 28, 17:04 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $6.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 2, 11:07 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 29, 04:54 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.