AIExpires Jun 30, 2026
Creator

Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?

Probability

60¢

1h

+14.5pp

24h

-11.0pp

24h Vol

$61.1K

Liquidity

$32.7K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

LIVE

Reason

Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Jun 30, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

-7.5pp 7d
1007550250
54¢
May 28, 2026, 11:00 UTCJun 4, 2026, 10:39 UTC
updated 10:39:34 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-06-04T10-39Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 11pp over 24h

    Now 60¢; +14.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 1.9× turnover

    $61.1k traded against $32.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

What to track next

  • Set an alert if probability recovers above 65¢ — that's where this move would be reversing.
  • Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
  • Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification brief

live monitoring

The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Telegram pilot prompt

Orrery verification task Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification post

Orrery verification brief Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Source-drop audit

Submit durable sources that map to one resolution criterion.

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent drops

Contributor audit

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • Jun 30, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 613.3h

    LOW

Price movement

-11.0pp over the last 24h, now 60¢.

Biggest hourly move: +76.0pp at Jun 2, 16:00 UTC (to 94¢).

Show top 8 of 65 hourly moves
  • 11:00 · +48.5pp → 71¢
  • Jun 3, 09:00 UTC · +49.5pp → 71¢
  • Jun 3, 03:00 UTC · +49.5pp → 68¢
  • Jun 3, 02:00 UTC · +48.5pp → 68¢
  • Jun 2, 17:00 UTC · +51.5pp → 69¢
  • Jun 2, 16:00 UTC · +76.0pp → 94¢
  • May 31, 02:00 UTC · -55.0pp → 18¢
  • May 31, 00:00 UTC · -54.0pp → 19¢
updated 10:39:34 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 10:39:34 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to “Yes” if Donald Trump signs any federal legislation into law or performs any executive action that creates, authorizes, or directs a federal government review process for the public release of new artificial intelligence models by the listed date, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” A qualifying action must create a federal process for reviewing or approving the public release of new artificial intelligence models. A qualifying review process may apply to artificial intelligence models generally, only to models meeting specified criteria (e.g.capability, safety, cybersecurity, national-security, or other risk-based criteria), or to models selected for review at the discretion of the federal government. Legislation or executive actions which create a group or committee responsible for overseeing artificial intelligence matters will only qualify if they explicitly create a qualifying review process. Non-binding statements, proposals, unconfirmed reports, or federal review of artificial intelligence models solely for government procurement or internal government use will not qualify. The primary resolution source will be official information from the United States federal government; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

AI

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

ai model

Reason

Question text contains the high-signal keyword "ai model" — matched the AI rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Trump orders federal review of AI model releases by June 30?"?

As of Thu, 04 Jun 2026 10:39:34 GMT, YES is priced at 60% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -11.0pp in the last 24 hours, +14.5pp in the last hour, and -7.5pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jun 30, 2026 (2026-06-30T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$61.1K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $62.1K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $32.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 2.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket