0x0b0f048e4b9a1bf8a546f46685f6da8c1dce74f8
0x0b0f048e4b9a1bf8a546f46685f6da8c1dce74f8
Wallet digest
Activity score
87/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
8
Open notional
$16.41
Total PnL
$0.95
Realised
$1.93
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?
10 shares @ 50.4¢·now 50.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.01
$-0.03
- NO
Will Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?
5 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 27, 2026$5.00
$2.30
- YES
Starmer out by June 30, 2026?
5 shares @ 42.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$4.99
$2.90
- YES
Will OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?
5 shares @ 56.0¢·now 18.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.93
$-1.88
- YES
Will Base launch a token by December 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 37.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.47
$-1.38
- NO
Will the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
5 shares @ 20.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-1.00
- YES
Will the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?
5 shares @ 19.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-0.95
- YES
Will MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30?
5 shares @ 18.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026$0.00
$-0.94
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill bitcoin hit $1m before GTA VI?$2.52Jul 17, 09:37 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$3.98Jun 19, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$1.66Jun 19, 16:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$0.43Jun 19, 16:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$3.10Jun 19, 08:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Portugal win Group K in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.70Jun 19, 06:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?$2.80Jun 19, 02:41 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic have the best AI model at the end of June 2026?$0.18Jun 19, 00:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$1.72Jun 18, 22:03 UTC
- TRADESELLStarmer out by June 30, 2026?$1.55Jun 18, 21:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI IPO by December 31 2026?$2.75Jun 18, 17:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Vegas Golden Knights win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$0.95Jun 15, 00:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Carolina Hurricanes win the 2026 NHL Stanley Cup?$1.00Jun 15, 00:27 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$3.15Jun 14, 09:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Switzerland win Group B in the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$2.65Jun 14, 06:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kostyantynivka by June 30?$3.02Jun 13, 08:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?$2.60Jun 12, 06:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI not IPO by December 31, 2026?$2.40Jun 12, 02:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $0.16Jun 11, 21:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill MegaETH perform an airdrop by June 30? $0.78Jun 11, 20:48 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.67
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 29, 00:37 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 09:37 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.