Messy-Traditionalism
0x0b569c879f7d5dd7104c4ad0a1434bad4e953f6b
Wallet digest
Activity score
91/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
8
Open notional
$47.4K
Total PnL
$640.95
Realised
$-2.0K
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
30000 shares @ 90.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$28.1K
$950.01
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
8000 shares @ 94.0¢·now 96.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$7.7K
$180.00
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
4906 shares @ 87.0¢·now 93.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.6K
$301.15
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire agreement by October 31, 2026?
3000 shares @ 64.0¢·now 85.0¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$2.5K
$630.00
- NO
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by July 31?
1853 shares @ 67.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$1.9K
$602.29
- NO
Will inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?
2033 shares @ 86.0¢·now 87.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$30.83
- NO
Will the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?
1054 shares @ 84.7¢·now 82.3¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$867.97
$-24.63
- YES
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by December 31?
1 shares @ 88.7¢·now 60.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.61
$-0.28
Recent activity
- REWARD$1.01Aug 3, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$14.92Jul 31, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$34.40Jul 31, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$84.16Jul 31, 15:18 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.61Jul 31, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.03Jul 31, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?$819.40Jul 30, 13:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$731.61Jul 30, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$866.02Jul 30, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?$17.07Jul 30, 10:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?$13.60Jul 30, 10:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$1.3KJul 30, 10:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill inflation reach more than 5% in 2026?$28.05Jul 30, 03:16 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.82Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
- REWARD$1.63Jul 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?$18.96Jul 29, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the upper bound of the target federal funds rate be 4.25% at the end of 2026?$23.70Jul 29, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$319.65Jul 29, 09:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$10.16Jul 29, 08:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$115.73Jul 29, 08:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 73/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $215.80
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 8, 14:58 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 3, 00:00 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.