Woeful-Basics
0x0bfa50c0150f9733d52382aeab16e3a01f153888
Wallet digest
Activity score
55/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
36
Open notional
$138.00
Total PnL
$-508.83
Realised
$-187.34
Win rate
46%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 36- YES
Netanyahu out by end of 2026?
215 shares @ 46.0¢·now 39.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.92
$-13.97
- YES
Will Exponent launch a token by December 31, 2026?
219 shares @ 86.0¢·now 24.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$52.56
$-135.78
- YES
Anduril IPO before 2027?
5 shares @ 38.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.33
$-1.57
- NO
Will Ilhan Omar be the Democratic Nominee for MN-05?
4 shares @ 33.0¢·now 3.4¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$0.14
$-1.18
- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
2 shares @ 16.0¢·now 2.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.05
$-0.27
- YES
Will 2026 rank as the sixth-hottest year on record or lower?
1 shares @ 1.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-0.01
- NO
Will "Stranger Things: Season 5" be the top US Netflix show this week? (January 6, 2026)
225 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 6, 2026$0.00
$-22.50
- YES
Will Stellan Skarsgård win Best Supporting Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?
123 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-29.52
- YES
US national Bitcoin reserve in 2025?
86 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-1.38
- YES
Will Almanak FDV above $120M one day after launch?
85 shares @ 8.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$0.00
$-6.80
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill It Was Just an Accident win Best Original Screenplay at the 98th Academy Awards?$1.00May 21, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Marty Supreme win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$5.00May 21, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill No Other Choice be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$7.00May 21, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Avatar: Fire and Ash be nominated for Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?$12.00May 21, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Joel Edgerton be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$14.00May 21, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$14.00May 21, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill 60 to 89 tornadoes occur in the United States in December?$69.00May 21, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sentimental Value win Best Screenplay – Motion Picture at the 83rd Golden Globes?$279.00May 21, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jennifer Lawrence be nominated for Best Actress at the 98th Academy Awards?$659.00May 21, 08:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill Jesse Plemons be nominated for Best Actor at the 98th Academy Awards?$689.00May 21, 08:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Apr 1, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 31, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 30, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 29, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 28, 00:23 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 26, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 25, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 24, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Mar 23, 01:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
32/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
46% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 21, 00:13 UTC
- Last active
- May 21, 08:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.