0x0c1feed0e1deffdb598d8e5361e35be6a543448f
0x0c1feed0e1deffdb598d8e5361e35be6a543448f
Wallet digest
Activity score
56/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
34
Open notional
$7.15
Total PnL
$-3.4K
Realised
$-600.61
Win rate
43%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 34- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET
5 shares @ 94.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$5.28
$0.27
- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
25 shares @ 16.9¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.87
$-2.35
- YES
Trump out as President by March 31?
14033 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$0.00
$-47.77
- YES
Trump out as President by April 30?
8033 shares @ 1.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$0.00
$-141.28
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:15PM-9:20PM ET
1694 shares @ 48.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-828.09
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:05AM-1:10AM ET
1424 shares @ 13.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-197.15
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:20PM-9:25PM ET
1393 shares @ 57.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-797.64
- DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 14, 1:15AM-1:20AM ET
1024 shares @ 1.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$0.00
$-19.99
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 9:10PM-9:15PM ET
608 shares @ 35.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-218.67
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - March 6, 8:20PM-8:25PM ET
414 shares @ 14.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 7, 2026$0.00
$-59.78
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$5.00Apr 15, 01:04 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$10.23Apr 15, 01:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 9:00PM-9:05PM ET$10.00Apr 15, 01:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 7:25PM-7:30PM ET$0.00Apr 15, 01:03 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$13.74Apr 15, 01:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Tom Steyer win the California Governor Election in 2026?$36.47Apr 15, 01:02 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$0.00Apr 15, 00:59 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$0.00Apr 15, 00:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$1.00Apr 15, 00:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$5.00Apr 15, 00:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:55PM-9:00PM ET$5.00Apr 15, 00:55 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$10.30Apr 15, 00:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.00Apr 15, 00:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$6.00Apr 15, 00:54 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$5.72Apr 15, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$6.00Apr 15, 00:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$1.00Apr 15, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:50PM-8:55PM ET$5.00Apr 15, 00:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:45PM-8:50PM ET$10.20Apr 15, 00:49 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - April 14, 8:15PM-8:20PM ET$8.99Apr 15, 00:16 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
43% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
40 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 65/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 40
- Avg trade size
- $6.10
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 14, 04:36 UTC
- Last active
- Apr 15, 01:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.