Mean-Recommendation
0x0d10ff6c461e75da4792f4fd8fd1d414e6a66b3d
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
29
Open notional
$626.01
Total PnL
$-336.68
Realised
$-0.56
Win rate
80%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 29- YES
Will there be 8 or more earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?
100 shares @ 36.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$100.00
$63.80
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
100 shares @ 65.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$100.00
$35.00
- NO
Will global temperature increase by less than 1.10ºC in March 2026?
100 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 10, 2026$100.00
$9.00
- NO
5kt meteor strike in 2026?
100 shares @ 63.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$74.00
$11.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 1 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruption worldwide in 2026?
300 shares @ 12.3¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$61.50
$24.70
- NO
Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?
69 shares @ 65.0¢·now 79.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$55.16
$10.06
- YES
Will Marco Rubio win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
200 shares @ 27.6¢·now 27.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$53.90
$-1.30
- NO
Major meteor strike (10kt+) in 2026?
35 shares @ 82.0¢·now 89.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$31.10
$2.45
- YES
H.R. 22 (SAVE Act) signed into law in 2026?
200 shares @ 13.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.00
$-9.00
- YES
Will there be exactly 2 confirmed VEI 4 or higher volcanic eruptions worldwide in 2026?
300 shares @ 12.3¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.75
$-24.05
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 23, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 22, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 20, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 18, 00:17 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 16, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 14, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 12, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
24/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
80% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 9, 00:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.