Will there be between 11 and 13 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide in 2026?

1. 1

   Down 1pp over 24h

   Now 20¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $8.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

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This market will resolve according to the total number of earthquakes with a magnitude of 7.0 or higher that occur anywhere on Earth between January 1 and December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The resolution source for this market is the United States Geological Survey (USGS) Earthquake Hazards Program (https://earthquake.usgs.gov/earthquakes/browse/significant.php#sigdef). If an earthquake of substantial size has occurred within this market's timeframe but not yet appeared on the resolution source, this market may remain open until January 7, 2027, 11:59 PM ET, or until the earthquake in question otherwise appears on the resolution source. If such an earthquake has not appeared on the resolution source by that date, another credible resolution source will be used.