Fancy-Snakebite
0x0d6283ac745742d954c972400d417a3ac03727e0
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
68
Open notional
$21.8K
Total PnL
$12.5K
Realised
$-288.93
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 68- YES
Will Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
2000 shares @ 91.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$2.0K
$173.00
- NO
US recession by end of 2026?
2173 shares @ 65.0¢·now 88.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2027$1.9K
$499.80
- NO
Will Satoshi move any Bitcoin in 2026?
2000 shares @ 91.2¢·now 94.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$1.9K
$65.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
2000 shares @ 0.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.8K
$1.8K
- NO
Billionaire one-time wealth tax passes in California election 2026?
2000 shares @ 0.0¢·now 66.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$1.3K
$1.3K
- NO
Will James Fishback be the Republican nominee for Florida Governor?
1160 shares @ 89.0¢·now 97.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.1K
$96.86
- NO
Will the U.S. invade Iran before 2027?
1000 shares @ 0.0¢·now 76.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$765.00
$765.00
- NO
Predict.fun FDV above $1B one day after launch?
1000 shares @ 0.0¢·now 74.5¢·exp Jan 1, 2028$744.50
$744.50
- YES
Will Russia capture Kostyantynivka by December 31, 2026?
800 shares @ 0.0¢·now 91.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$728.79
$728.79
- NO
Will the Republican Party control the Senate after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1500 shares @ 0.0¢·now 44.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$667.50
$667.50
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.12Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 27, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 26, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 23, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 21, 20:04 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 21, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 19, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 18, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 17, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 16, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.12Jul 15, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 14, 00:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Spain win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$201.71Jul 13, 18:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 13, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 12, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.14Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
16/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
18 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 59/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 18
- Avg trade size
- $112.59
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 3, 18:34 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 00:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.