Critical-Emitter
0x0d7e9ddc0a0e6a7cd703ce8d1c0fd3b517a7cb13
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
21
Open notional
$2.7K
Total PnL
$1.9K
Realised
$2.6K
Win rate
29%
17 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 21- YES
Trump out as President before 2027?
30000 shares @ 7.1¢·now 7.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.2K
$131.73
- YES
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
5001 shares @ 4.9¢·now 4.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$232.53
$-11.32
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
1000 shares @ 9.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$85.00
$-5.20
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?
5000 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.3¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$62.50
$-18.64
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
3500 shares @ 0.9¢·now 1.3¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$43.75
$11.05
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 2.2¢·now 2.8¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$2.75
$0.55
- YES
Trump out as President by July 31?
5000 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.50
$-10.52
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?
100 shares @ 1.1¢·now 1.3¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$1.25
$0.15
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by July 31, 2026?
1500 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.75
$-1.05
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 25 bps after the July 2026 meeting?
104005 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.00
$-341.55
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$2.96Jul 30, 02:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$3.54Jul 30, 01:41 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$5.91Jul 30, 00:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.03Jul 30, 00:11 UTC
- REWARD$1.82Jul 30, 00:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYTrump out as President by July 31?$1.00Jul 29, 22:20 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$0.46Jul 29, 20:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$3.39Jul 29, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$1.65Jul 29, 19:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$1.15Jul 29, 19:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?$2.31Jul 29, 19:37 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$3.81Jul 29, 19:31 UTC
- TRADESELLPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$0.99Jul 29, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$1.50Jul 29, 19:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$1.68Jul 29, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the September 2026 meeting?$417.74Jul 29, 19:12 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$0.20Jul 29, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$4.15Jul 29, 19:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by August 31, 2026?$0.13Jul 29, 19:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the September 2026 meeting?$16.06Jul 29, 18:54 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
29/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
29% win rate over 17 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
17 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $26.20
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 29, 17:50 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 02:17 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 17 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.