Neighboring-Xylophone
0x0da8225c75d563777af61fc4424544277ff054af
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
123
Open notional
$752.17
Total PnL
$-1.2K
Realised
$24.04
Win rate
40%
5 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 123- NO
Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?
88 shares @ 44.2¢·now 94.4¢·exp Jul 19, 2026$83.22
$44.22
- NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (LOW) $85 in July?
86 shares @ 23.3¢·now 61.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$52.24
$32.29
- NO
Will Russia test a nuclear weapon by December 31 2026?
43 shares @ 91.6¢·now 91.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.17
$0.04
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from July 21 to July 28, 2026?
40 shares @ 98.0¢·now 91.5¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$36.60
$-2.60
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?
43 shares @ 89.5¢·now 83.0¢·exp Jul 25, 2026$36.00
$-2.84
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from July 17 to July 24, 2026?
40 shares @ 97.1¢·now 88.3¢·exp Jul 24, 2026$35.26
$-3.54
- YES
Total Internet Blackout in Iran by July 31, 2026?
274 shares @ 14.8¢·now 12.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$33.41
$-7.25
- YES
Will Crude Oil reach a new all-time high by September 30?
256 shares @ 7.8¢·now 12.2¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$31.20
$11.25
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 34°C on July 23?
30 shares @ 65.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 23, 2026$29.85
$10.35
- LIAM DRAXL
Winnipeg: August Holmgren vs Liam Draxl
35 shares @ 56.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$26.16
$6.36
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 23 to July 25, 2026?$19.61Jul 23, 23:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 26°C on July 23?$18.49Jul 23, 23:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 27°C on July 23?$6.92Jul 23, 23:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Amsterdam be 21°C on July 23?$17.27Jul 23, 22:57 UTC
- REDEEMWinnipeg: Johannus Monday vs Yuta Shimizu$35.00Jul 23, 22:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 35°C on July 24?$14.16Jul 23, 20:42 UTC
- REDEEMS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 23?$50.49Jul 23, 20:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYWinnipeg: Johannus Monday vs Yuta Shimizu$20.03Jul 23, 20:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWinnipeg: August Holmgren vs Liam Draxl$20.24Jul 23, 19:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 23?$19.44Jul 23, 18:23 UTC
- REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down on July 23?$38.45Jul 23, 18:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia and Ukraine hold any diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$19.53Jul 23, 17:57 UTC
- REDEEMSegovia: Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Oliver Crawford$36.00Jul 23, 17:36 UTC
- REDEEMZug: Harold Mayot vs Mika Brunold$36.00Jul 23, 16:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on July 24?$20.62Jul 23, 16:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYS&P 500 (SPY) closes above $735 on July 23?$19.94Jul 23, 15:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYSegovia: Alejo Sanchez Quilez vs Oliver Crawford$20.25Jul 23, 15:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYZug: Harold Mayot vs Mika Brunold$20.25Jul 23, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYGenerali Open: Tomas Etcheverry vs Ignacio Buse$20.23Jul 23, 12:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill "The Odyssey" 2nd Weekend Box Office be between 74m and 80m?$19.46Jul 23, 11:53 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
40% win rate over 5 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
34 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
5 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 34
- Avg trade size
- $15.08
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 22, 20:19 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 23, 23:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 5 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.