SportsMulti-outcomeExpires Jul 19, 2026
Creator

Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?

Probability

79¢

1h

+0.5pp

24h

+29.5pp

24h Vol

$4.0K

Liquidity

$2.4K

Research loop

Inspect detail

Read the move, holders, recent trades, source, and resolution risk before saving anything.

MarketsDetailWatchlistAlertBrief

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

EXPIRED

Reason

Expiry is in the past but upstream has not confirmed a resolution.

Expiry passed and the market has not been officially resolved. Do not treat the price as the outcome.

Methodology explanation

Review-only opportunity

No paper intent is emitted from the public opportunity row. Paper action appears only after the paper governor evaluates the row.

read_only_explanationpaper-onlysend false

Why this market is in review

signal

Resolution-source risk

40% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Paper-only action

paper-only

Review-only opportunity

read_only_explanation; no live order, no network send, no raw secrets.

Risk / veto readback

review

Resolution review required

The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

Source evidence

source

4 mapped surfaces

283/283 sources runtime-backed; all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false.

Signals

  • Resolution-source riskwatch

    40% source confidence on this opportunity row.

Veto / blockers

  • Resolution review requiredwatch

    The public opportunity row has not passed the paper governor; source wording and settlement state remain review blockers.

  • Confidence below paper gatewatch

    Paper policy needs at least 72% confidence before any paper intent can be proposed.

Costs / sizing

Research score
Composite opportunity score before paper-governor costs and vetoes.
24
Capacity
Estimated research capacity, not an approved size.
$500
Liquidity
Market liquidity visible on the opportunity row.
$2k
Explanation packet2026-06-16.1
DecisionSignalsVetoes and capsCostsDriftShadow policyLearning statusAuthority
What can be learned
Source-to-runtime coverage283/283 runtime-backed0 unmapped

all registered sources are runtime-backed; live authority remains false; this card cites mapped surfaces only.

P32-Source-to-Runtime-Coverage-Matrix-v1semantic_risk_kernelmethodology_runtime_boundarypromotion_gate+3
live falsesecrets falsetraining falsenot advice

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
Jul 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
consensus of credible reporting
Type
News consensus
Confidence
extracted · medium
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
  • Market expires Jul 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
Share risk cardRead full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
78¢
Jul 17, 2026, 02:00 UTCJul 21, 2026, 21:48 UTC
updated 21:48:28 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-07-21T21-48Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 3 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Up 30pp over 24h

    Now 79¢; +0.5pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

  • 03
    Liquidity

    Thin liquidity

    Only $2.4k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Verification Brief

A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.

resolution sensitive
Trust transition

The event window has passed and the market should not be read as settled until the upstream resolution path is confirmed.

Create trust-state alert

Verification goal

Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.

What needs proof

Primary source

required

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting

Contract wording

required

Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.

Settlement state

required

Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved.

Current evidence: Expired, unresolved

Telegram verification task

Orrery verification task Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million? State: Expired, unresolved — resolution sensitive Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Settlement state: Check whether the market is still live, expired-unresolved, UMA pending, disputed, or officially resolved. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.

X verification thread

Orrery verification brief Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million? State: resolution sensitive Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.

Market link goes in reply

Guided source review

A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.

Sources

0

Criteria covered

0

Reviewed

0

Awaiting review

0

Submit a source mapped to a criterion

Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.

Research only · no price-only screenshots · no profit claims

Recent source checks

Pilot audit summary

Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • 21:48Signal

    Resolution risk

    Market has reached expiry. Watch the UMA dispute window.

    LOW
  • Jul 19, 23:59 UTCScheduled resolution

    Expiry passed 46h ago; not yet resolved upstream

    HIGH

Price movement

+29.5pp over the last 24h, now 79¢.

Biggest hourly move: +50.5pp at 15:00 (to 79¢).

Show top 8 of 37 hourly moves
  • 21:00 · +49.0pp → 78¢
  • 20:00 · +48.5pp → 78¢
  • 18:00 · +48.5pp → 78¢
  • 17:00 · +47.0pp → 77¢
  • 15:00 · +50.5pp → 79¢
  • 14:00 · +46.0pp → 75¢
  • 12:00 · +47.5pp → 75¢
  • 11:00 · +47.0pp → 75¢
updated 21:48:28 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open large-trade flowBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 21:48:28 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventWorld Cup Final: U.S. Viewership
Category · Sports

Market Description

This market will resolve according to the number of U.S. viewers (Persons 2+, average total viewers) Nielsen reports the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final between Spain and Argentina as having. If this event is cancelled or otherwise does not occur by July 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to the lowest bracket. This market will resolve based on the first official estimate reported by Nielsen. Any later revisions or retractions will have no bearing on resolution. If the reported number of viewers falls exactly between two brackets, this market will resolve to the higher range bracket. The resolution source will be information from Nielsen, specifically their Persons 2+ statistic. A consensus of credible reporting on Nielsen's Persons 2+ statistic for the FIFA World Cup Final may also be used. If the FIFA World Cup Final takes place, and Nielsen does not provide viewership information for the broadcast of the game within 10 calendar days, another credible source for the FIFA World Cup Final viewership may be chosen.

Why this category?

confidence: high

Category

Sports

Source

Manual override (pattern match)

Matched term

2026 fifa world cup

Reason

FIFA World Cup outright/team markets are Sports even when the team/country name is also a geopolitics keyword.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will U.S. viewership of the 2026 FIFA World Cup Final be at least 58 million?"?

As of Tue, 21 Jul 2026 21:48:28 GMT, YES is priced at 79% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed +29.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.5pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by Jul 19, 2026 (2026-07-19T23:59:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$4.0K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $17.7K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $2.4K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket