0x0e5b4c1bef779a1640e900181cbb0a12f0bee414
0x0e5b4c1bef779a1640e900181cbb0a12f0bee414
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
22
Open notional
$143.32
Total PnL
$61.46
Realised
$0.25
Win rate
67%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 22- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
29 shares @ 79.3¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$28.56
$5.90
- NO
Weed rescheduled in 2025?
26 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$25.58
$25.58
- YES
Trump declassifies UFO files in 2025?
17 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$17.05
$17.05
- YES
US x Venezuela military engagement by January 31, 2026?
14 shares @ 0.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$13.60
$13.60
- YES
Will anyone be charged over Daycare fraud in Minnesota by December 31?
11 shares @ 89.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$10.78
$1.12
- YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the March 2026 meeting?
10 shares @ 95.4¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 18, 2026$10.24
$0.47
- YES
Will the DHS shutdown last 14 days or more?
5 shares @ 90.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 14, 2026$5.37
$0.54
- NO
Will Iran name a successor to Khamenei by March 5?
5 shares @ 91.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$5.30
$0.48
- NO
Starmer out by May 15, 2026?
5 shares @ 94.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$5.13
$0.31
- YES
Will Dick Schoof be the next leader out before 2027?
5 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.96
$0.01
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.00Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- TRADESELLWill François Hollande win the 2027 French presidential election?$3.25Jul 9, 14:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?$25.52Jul 9, 14:02 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 9, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 8, 00:26 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 7, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 6, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 4, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 3, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 2, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 1, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 30, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 28, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 27, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 26, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 25, 00:18 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 24, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jun 23, 00:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
15/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
67% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
3 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 53/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 3
- Avg trade size
- $9.85
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 00:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.