Muddy-Variety
0x0efac61df18a19b8e5571184d1cec215e55fb772
Wallet digest
Activity score
67/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
2
Open notional
$51.00
Total PnL
$-27.25
Realised
$-0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill MrBeast hit 520 million subscribers by July 31?$50.95Jul 17, 02:11 UTC
- REDEEMLai Ching-te impeached by June 30?$37.00Jul 4, 11:47 UTC
- REDEEMWill DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?$79.00Jul 4, 11:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill DeepSeek have the best Coding AI model at the end of June 2026?$78.92Jun 25, 01:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYLai Ching-te impeached by June 30?$36.89Jun 19, 00:36 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by May 31?$62.00Jun 8, 07:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by May 31?$61.57May 20, 08:10 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?$57.00May 14, 06:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from April 27 - May 3?$56.95May 2, 15:55 UTC
- REDEEMNetanyahu out by March 31?$59.30Apr 5, 12:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYNetanyahu out by March 31?$58.83Mar 25, 06:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?$35.60Mar 23, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?$80.11Mar 6, 14:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel strike Greater Beirut on March 5, 2026?$80.03Mar 5, 11:50 UTC
- REDEEMWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?$24.70Mar 4, 14:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill SpaceX Starship Flight Test 12 launch by February 28?$24.60Feb 22, 08:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?$26.32Feb 10, 06:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?$1.38Feb 10, 03:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anutin Charnvirakul be the next prime minister of Thailand?$7.40Feb 10, 02:37 UTC
- REDEEMMaple Leafs vs. Kraken$213.00Jan 31, 09:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 27
- Avg trade size
- $36.76
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 18, 04:00 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 02:11 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.