Lai Ching-te impeached by June 30?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 1569h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $22.8k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to "Yes" if the President of Taiwan, Lai Ching-te, is formally impeached by the Legislative Yuan by June 30, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No." For this market to resolve to "Yes" it is only necessary that the Legislative Yuan propose and approve a motion of impeachment against Lai Ching-te, regardless of whether the Constitutional Court later upholds the impeachment. The primary resolution source for this market is official information from the Taiwanese government, however a consensus of credible reporting may be used.