Austere-Nestling
0x0f7a66e2a445431787deeb24ee4483b80fccd37e
Wallet digest
Activity score
77/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
106
Open notional
$11.28
Total PnL
$-4.2K
Realised
$298.57
Win rate
90%
10 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 106- YES
Ostium FDV above $3B one day after launch?
211 shares @ 5.6¢·now 5.3¢·exp Jan 1, 2027$11.28
$-0.63
- YES
Will the government shutdown end November 14?
21000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Nov 21, 2025$0.00
$-21.00
- YES
Will Alphabet be the largest company in the world by market cap on January 31?
11680 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-112.16
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 280-299 tweets from January 20 to January 27, 2026?
10800 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-10.80
- YES
Will Billie Eilish be the top Spotify artist for 2025?
8234 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.00
$-12.56
- YES
Will Trump nominate Michelle Bowman as the next Fed chair?
5900 shares @ 1.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-89.90
- YES
Will Alex Honnold free solo Taipei 101 in less than 1 hour?
5480 shares @ 2.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 23, 2026$0.00
$-139.99
- YES
Will Trump nominate Scott Bessent as the next Fed chair?
5198 shares @ 1.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-72.63
- YES
Will Trump nominate Stephen Miran as the next Fed chair?
5180 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.00
$-24.79
- NO
Will Norway win the most gold medals in the 2026 Winter Olympics?
4698 shares @ 3.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 22, 2026$0.00
$-177.42
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$342.20May 19, 16:22 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$1.52Apr 30, 06:50 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$272.00Apr 29, 18:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$48.75Apr 29, 13:58 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$131.19Apr 29, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill no Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?$195.80Apr 29, 13:57 UTC
- TRADESELLJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?$36.39Apr 29, 13:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?$17.13Apr 12, 15:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYMamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?$18.00Apr 12, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYJerome Powell out as Fed Chair by May 14, 2026?$7.99Apr 6, 19:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYMamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?$18.00Apr 6, 19:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYArizona Wildcats vs. Michigan Wolverines: O/U 157.5$21.00Apr 5, 02:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the U.S. collect between $100b and $200b in revenue in 2025?$0.00Mar 29, 19:04 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$0.00Mar 29, 19:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?$0.00Mar 29, 19:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump nominate Kevin Hassett as the next Fed chair?$0.00Mar 29, 19:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYMamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?$24.00Mar 29, 19:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill Sinners win Best Cinematography at the 98th Academy Awards?$100.00Mar 18, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYMamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?$1.04Mar 6, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYMamdani opens city-owned grocery store by June 30?$0.54Mar 5, 09:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
21/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 10 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
44 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 67/100.
10 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 44
- Avg trade size
- $32.40
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 13, 17:53 UTC
- Last active
- May 19, 16:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 10 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.