Raw-Distinction-Godmother
0x10241c17d38d54ffc1adfbf0b951e9299de53f80
Wallet digest
Activity score
47/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
55
Open notional
$48.99
Total PnL
$-177.35
Realised
$-1.88
Win rate
0%
14 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 55- YES
Will Arc launch a token by September 30 2026?
332 shares @ 2.6¢·now 3.1¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$10.45
$1.69
- YES
Will Catalina Lauf be the Republican nominee for FL-19?
10 shares @ 82.0¢·now 81.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$8.15
$-0.05
- YES
Will Ben Butler be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
23 shares @ 22.2¢·now 27.4¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$6.40
$1.21
- YES
Will Angie Nixon be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Florida?
87 shares @ 8.0¢·now 7.2¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$6.29
$-0.72
- YES
Will Dan Green be the Republican nominee for FL-09?
24 shares @ 21.1¢·now 21.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$5.10
$0.08
- YES
Will Stefany Shaheen be the Democratic nominee for NH-01?
5 shares @ 72.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$3.63
$0.03
- YES
Will Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?
35 shares @ 10.4¢·now 10.0¢·exp Sep 8, 2026$3.44
$-0.17
- YES
Will Megan Degenfelder win the 2026 Wyoming Governor Republican primary election?
14 shares @ 22.2¢·now 21.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$3.08
$-0.10
- YES
Will Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?
5 shares @ 30.0¢·now 31.5¢·exp Aug 18, 2026$1.57
$0.07
- YES
Will Seth Moulton be the Democratic nominee for Senate in Massachusetts?
5 shares @ 18.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$0.88
$-0.03
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?$0.88Aug 15, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?$0.85Aug 15, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?$0.93Aug 15, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?$0.94Aug 15, 14:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Treg Taylor advance from the 2026 Alaska Governor primary election?$1.50Aug 15, 14:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:30AM-9:45AM ET$2.30Aug 15, 13:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:30AM ET$2.42Aug 15, 13:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.28Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.62Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.30Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.39Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.05Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.16Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.25Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.11Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.05Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.32Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.05Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.05Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYEthereum Up or Down - August 15, 9:15AM-9:20AM ET$0.25Aug 15, 13:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
38/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
0% win rate over 14 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.
14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $0.91
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 15, 09:24 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 15, 14:47 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 14 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.