Will Dan McKee win the 2026 Rhode Island Governor Democratic primary election?
Probability
14¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.0pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$14.1K
Probability (last 7 days)
-6.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 14¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Wide spread — 6.0¢
Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable edge. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 3235.8h
Price movement
-1.0pp over the last 24h, now 14¢.
Biggest hourly move: -7.0pp at 2d ago (to 13¢).
Show 6 hourly moves
- 02:00 · -3.5pp → 13¢
- 00:00 · -3.0pp → 14¢
- 21:00 · -3.0pp → 14¢
- 17:00 · -3.5pp → 13¢
- 2d ago · -4.5pp → 16¢
- 2d ago · -7.0pp → 13¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve according to the winner of the Democratic Primary for Governor of Rhode Island, scheduled to take place on September 8, 2026. Resolution will be based on the overall winner of the primary, including any potential second round or run-off. If no 2026 Rhode Island Gubernatorial Democratic Primary takes place, this market will resolve to “Other.” The resolution source for this market will be the first official announcement of the results from the Rhode Island Democratic Party; however, an overwhelming consensus of credible reporting may suffice.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Sep 8, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimarynatoTypeOfficial government sourceConfidenceextracted · high
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
- Wide spread (6.0¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Alerts
In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email, Telegram, and Discord delivery are coming soon — every existing rule will keep working without changes.