Wallet digest

active

Activity score

86/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$175.22

Total PnL

$-10.57

Realised

$-3.09

Win rate

55%

11 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 18

NO
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
30 shares @ 69.1¢·now 66.3¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$19.91
$-0.83
YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?
30 shares @ 70.0¢·now 62.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$18.75
$-2.25
NO
Will Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?
30 shares @ 69.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$16.65
$-4.05
YES
Will there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?
15 shares @ 65.0¢·now 93.5¢·exp Jul 29, 2026
$14.03
$4.28
YES
Tamas Sulyok out as President of Hungary by July 31?
15 shares @ 79.0¢·now 79.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026
$11.85
$0.00
YES
Will Bitcoin reach $65,000 in July?
15 shares @ 60.0¢·now 78.0¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$11.70
$2.70
YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
40 shares @ 33.0¢·now 27.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026
$11.00
$-2.20
NO
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
15 shares @ 73.0¢·now 72.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026
$10.88
$-0.07
YES
Will WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $90 in July?
30 shares @ 29.0¢·now 33.7¢·exp Aug 1, 2026
$10.10
$1.38
NO
Iran full airspace closure by August 31?
15 shares @ 51.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026
$8.77
$1.12

Recent activity

TRADESELLWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$3.17Jul 14, 14:02 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$6.75Jul 14, 14:02 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$0.00Jul 14, 13:59 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:45AM-8:50AM ET$9.99Jul 14, 13:57 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$0.00Jul 14, 13:55 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$10.00Jul 14, 13:53 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$6.90Jul 14, 13:52 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:40AM-8:45AM ET$20.00Jul 14, 13:52 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:30AM-8:45AM ET$10.00Jul 14, 13:50 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8AM ET$0.00Jul 14, 13:48 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin reach $67,500 in July?$6.75Jul 14, 13:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:45AM-9:00AM ET$10.00Jul 14, 13:47 UTC
REDEEMBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:50AM-8:55AM ET$10.00Jul 14, 13:45 UTC
TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$12.45Jul 14, 13:44 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:20AM-9:25AM ET$1.59Jul 14, 13:21 UTC
TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$2.55Jul 14, 13:21 UTC
TRADEBUYIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$0.99Jul 14, 13:15 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$1.13Jul 14, 12:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 8:55AM-9:00AM ET$0.37Jul 14, 12:57 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 14, 9:00AM-9:05AM ET$4.70Jul 14, 12:57 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

39/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

55% win rate over 11 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 38/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

11 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity71 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence37 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry67 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk38 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 41
Avg trade size: $4.04
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 14, 12:33 UTC
Last active: Jul 14, 14:02 UTC
Win rate sample: 11 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 14:03:41 UTC·src:Polymarket Data