Muted-Ribbon
0x10865e8face22c8858bceb35171ffd723d749e8b
Wallet digest
Activity score
71/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
38
Open notional
$123.24
Total PnL
$-109.45
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 38- NO
Will Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $162 Week of July 13 2026?
123 shares @ 99.8¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jul 17, 2026$123.24
$0.24
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $84,000 on April 27?
1207 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.41
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,100 on April 16?
715 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 16, 2026$0.00
$-1.43
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from April 25 to April 27, 2026?
709 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.80
- YES
Will Frankenstein win Best Picture at the 98th Academy Awards?
705 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 15, 2026$0.00
$-2.82
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,200 and $2,300 on March 27?
700 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.40
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be greater than $84,000 on April 27?
696 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.39
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $82,000 on February 4?
677 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-2.03
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $62,000 on March 27?
676 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 27, 2026$0.00
$-1.86
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,500 on April 27?
650 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 27, 2026$0.00
$-2.60
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Airbnb, Inc. (ABNB) hit (HIGH) $162 Week of July 13 2026?$123.01Jul 17, 07:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. England: O/U 3.5$6.95Jul 17, 07:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June?$61.06Jul 17, 07:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill BNB dip to $400 in June?$69.07Jul 17, 07:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPY) hit (HIGH) $780 in June?$61.00Jun 30, 09:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill BNB dip to $400 in June?$69.00Jun 30, 09:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 18°C on May 30?$10.71Jun 30, 09:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Claude 5 be released by May 31, 2026?$11.93Jun 30, 09:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Yang Hyang-ja win the 2026 Gyeonggi Province Gubernatorial Election?$13.22Jun 30, 09:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill XRP reach $1.60 in May?$94.60Jun 30, 09:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.60 in May?$94.52May 31, 04:30 UTC
- TRADESELLWill John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$93.86May 31, 04:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill John Fetterman win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?$94.03May 31, 03:57 UTC
- REDEEMLos Angeles Angels vs. Tampa Bay Rays$12.62May 31, 03:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$82.07May 31, 03:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from May 28 to May 30, 2026?$81.99May 30, 11:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?$81.90May 30, 11:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Los Angeles Angels win the 2026 World Series?$82.01May 30, 11:04 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?$81.90May 30, 11:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the San Francisco Giants win the 2026 World Series?$82.01May 30, 10:43 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 35
- Avg trade size
- $78.55
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 03:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 17, 07:39 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.