Hidden-Circumstance
0x1110650fd08219dfbbf84d872fa6aab8dfdc653c
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
14
Open notional
$11.39
Total PnL
$-6.54
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 14- YES
Will TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?
1 shares @ 67.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 12, 2026$1.49
$0.49
- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?
1 shares @ 69.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.45
$0.45
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by December 31?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.28
$0.28
- YES
Will Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?
1 shares @ 87.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$1.15
$0.15
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?
1 shares @ 89.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 3, 2026$1.12
$0.12
- YES
SpaceX IPO closing market cap above $1.2T?
1 shares @ 91.0¢·now 98.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2027$1.08
$0.08
- NO
Will China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?
1 shares @ 89.4¢·now 93.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.05
$0.05
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1 shares @ 75.8¢·now 74.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$0.99
$-0.01
- NO
Fed rate hike in 2026?
1 shares @ 78.0¢·now 60.0¢·exp Dec 9, 2026$0.77
$-0.23
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$1.00Mar 28, 17:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$1.00Mar 28, 17:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$1.00Mar 28, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:10PM-1:15PM ET$1.00Mar 28, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$1.00Mar 28, 17:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:05PM-1:10PM ET$1.00Mar 28, 17:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 28, 1:00PM-1:05PM ET$1.00Mar 28, 17:03 UTC
- TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$4.88Mar 26, 15:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$1.00Mar 26, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$1.00Mar 26, 15:02 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$1.00Mar 26, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 11:00AM-11:05AM ET$1.00Mar 26, 15:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - March 26, 10:55AM-11:00AM ET$1.00Mar 26, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 300-319 tweets from March 27 to April 3, 2026?$1.00Mar 26, 14:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by March 31?$1.00Mar 26, 14:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill TISZA – Respect and Freedom Party (TISZA) win the most seats in the next Hungarian parliamentary election?$1.00Mar 26, 14:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYFed rate hike in 2026?$1.00Mar 26, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYStrait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by end of April?$1.00Mar 26, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$1.00Mar 26, 14:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Mette Frederiksen be the next prime minister of Denmark after the 2026 parliamentary elections?$1.00Mar 26, 14:55 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $1.17
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 26, 14:50 UTC
- Last active
- Mar 28, 17:12 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".