0x11d3e83926b0c0970246fc07bd7ee608b27ace3f
0x11d3e83926b0c0970246fc07bd7ee608b27ace3f
Wallet digest
Activity score
100/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
99
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$2.9K
Realised
$6.4K
Win rate
88%
32 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 99- NO
US government shutdown Saturday?
171356 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.00
$-828.51
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from January 31 to February 2, 2026?
89680 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 2, 2026$0.00
$-192.27
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 180-199 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
61549 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-193.63
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 260-279 tweets from January 27 to February 3, 2026?
44503 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 3, 2026$0.00
$-141.03
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from January 23 to January 30, 2026?
38348 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 30, 2026$0.00
$-69.18
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 5 to February 7, 2026?
33461 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 7, 2026$0.00
$-55.28
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?
23081 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 10, 2026$0.00
$-47.80
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?
16903 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 4, 2026$0.00
$-86.68
- YES
Will Elon Musk post <40 tweets from February 7 to February 9, 2026?
15919 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 9, 2026$0.00
$-92.70
- YES
Will Elon Musk post 220-239 tweets from January 30 to February 6, 2026?
14505 shares @ 0.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 6, 2026$0.00
$-36.89
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.04Feb 11, 00:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia enter Rai-Oleksandrivka by February 28, 2026?$1.01Feb 10, 20:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Russia capture all of Pokrovsk by February 28?$0.88Feb 10, 20:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be eleven or more announced new U.S. armed forces strikes against drug boats by January 31, 2026?$3.02Feb 10, 20:58 UTC
- REDEEMWill Threads be #2 Free App in the US Apple App Store on January 30?$2.04Feb 10, 20:58 UTC
- TRADESELLU.S. strike on Somalia by February 7?$0.00Feb 10, 20:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?$48.46Feb 10, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Christopher Waller as the next Fed chair?$5.38Feb 10, 19:59 UTC
- TRADESELLUS-Iran nuclear deal before 2027?$0.86Feb 10, 19:57 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Trump nominate Judy Shelton as the next Fed chair?$610.77Feb 10, 19:57 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by January 30, 2026?$2.02Feb 10, 16:05 UTC
- REDEEMRaptors vs. Magic: O/U 220.5$2.68Feb 10, 14:05 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 140-164 tweets from February 2 to February 4, 2026?$2.77Feb 10, 14:05 UTC
- REDEEMPistons vs. Hornets$4.00Feb 10, 14:05 UTC
- REDEEMUS strikes Iran by February 6, 2026?$3.15Feb 10, 14:05 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$26.15Feb 10, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$1.17Feb 10, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$1.30Feb 10, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$1.13Feb 10, 13:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Elon Musk post 340-359 tweets from February 3 to February 10, 2026?$10.48Feb 10, 13:33 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Attention signal
77/100Resolved history and copy-risk checks are strong enough to use this wallet as market context.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
88% win rate over 32 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
42 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
32 closed markets, 88% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 42
- Avg trade size
- $55.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 10, 13:30 UTC
- Last active
- Feb 11, 00:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 32 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.