Modest-Dolphin
0x123e8517dbb0438d08309a1dfb3a73787e3002f6
Wallet digest
Activity score
89/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
6
Open notional
$605.07
Total PnL
$-2.53
Realised
$-2.45
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
566 shares @ 50.0¢·now 81.3¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$460.42
$177.41
- YES
Will JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?
566 shares @ 50.0¢·now 18.6¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$105.54
$-177.40
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Paris be 0°C on May 15?
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp May 15, 2026$9.88
$-0.02
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on May 15?
10 shares @ 99.7¢·now 99.5¢·exp May 15, 2026$9.88
$-0.02
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 15?
10 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp May 15, 2026$9.68
$-0.01
- NO
Will the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on May 15?
10 shares @ 99.9¢·now 99.7¢·exp May 15, 2026$9.68
$-0.02
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in New York City be between 44-45°F on May 15?$9.90May 15, 02:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Miami be 67°F or below on May 15?$9.70May 15, 02:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Paris be 0°C on May 15?$9.90May 15, 02:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Shanghai be 17°C on May 15?$9.70May 15, 02:51 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$31.70May 15, 02:49 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 15, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 14, 00:14 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or below on May 11?$1.10May 13, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 11?$1.90May 13, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 11?$1.90May 13, 08:30 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on May 11?$2.00May 13, 08:30 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 13, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 12, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 18°C or below on May 11?$1.10May 11, 02:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Guangzhou be 35°C or higher on May 11?$2.00May 11, 02:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Lucknow be 40°C on May 11?$1.90May 11, 02:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on May 11?$1.90May 11, 02:34 UTC
- MERGEWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$9.42May 11, 02:32 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 11, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$0.07May 10, 00:13 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 23
- Avg trade size
- $87.48
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 15, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- May 15, 02:56 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read — copy-risk bar is inverted so green is always "better for the user".