0x1241d827d844c4d9f4ef6495b3673aeb3245d325
0x1241d827d844c4d9f4ef6495b3673aeb3245d325
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
48
Open notional
$114.88
Total PnL
$-7.02
Realised
$-5.73
Win rate
25%
16 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 48- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by September 30?
13 shares @ 96.3¢·now 95.7¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$11.98
$-0.08
- NO
Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?
9 shares @ 95.9¢·now 94.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.88
$-0.13
- YES
Will Adilet win the most seats in the 2026 Kazakh Kurultai elections?
7 shares @ 98.0¢·now 98.4¢·exp Aug 23, 2026$7.30
$0.02
- NO
Will Geraldine Coggins win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?
7 shares @ 98.9¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 30, 2026$7.09
$0.02
- YES
Will Marine Le Pen be on the ballot for the 2027 French presidential election?
7 shares @ 90.8¢·now 89.5¢·exp Apr 17, 2027$5.92
$-0.09
- NO
Will María Corina Machado be the de facto leader of Venezuela at the end of 2026?
4 shares @ 96.6¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.98
$-0.02
- NO
Will another outcome occur in the 2026 Clacton by-election?
4 shares @ 98.1¢·now 96.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2027$3.93
$-0.07
- YES
Will Tarcísio de Freitas win the 2026 São Paulo gubernatorial election?
3 shares @ 93.3¢·now 93.5¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$3.01
$0.01
- NO
Will Jordan Bardella advance to the second round of the next French presidential election?
3 shares @ 95.0¢·now 94.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$3.00
$-0.02
- NO
Will María Corina Machado be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
3 shares @ 97.0¢·now 96.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.99
$-0.01
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Renan Santos win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?$1.01Jul 24, 00:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) win the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.00Jul 23, 18:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill PH win the 2026 Negeri Sembilan general elections?$1.03Jul 23, 17:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bev Craig win the 2026 Greater Manchester Mayoral Election?$1.00Jul 23, 17:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Turkey schedule early presidential elections in 2026?$1.00Jul 23, 16:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall by September 30?$1.00Jul 23, 16:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Saudi Arabia join the Abraham Accords before 2027?$4.87Jul 23, 16:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anwar Ibrahim cease to be Prime Minister of Malaysia by July 31, 2026?$1.00Jul 23, 15:33 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anwar Ibrahim cease to be Prime Minister of Malaysia by July 31, 2026?$4.99Jul 23, 15:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.00Jul 23, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.00Jul 23, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$3.90Jul 23, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.00Jul 23, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.00Jul 23, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.00Jul 23, 15:11 UTC
- TRADESELLWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.95Jul 23, 15:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.00Jul 23, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.00Jul 23, 15:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$1.00Jul 23, 15:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill voter turnout be less than 50% in the first round of the 2026 Zambian presidential elections?$0.97Jul 23, 15:10 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
35/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
25% win rate over 16 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
50 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
16 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 50
- Avg trade size
- $1.25
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 23, 14:31 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 24, 00:18 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 16 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.