Will Mohammed bin Salman cease to be the de facto leader of Saudi Arabia by December 31, 2026?

1. 1

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 5984h with open resolution ambiguity.

2. 2

   Thin liquidity

   Only $21.6k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Crown Prince of Saudi Arabia Mohammed bin Salman ceases to be leader of Saudi Arabia for any period of time between market creation and the specified date (ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No”. An announcement of Mohammed bin Salman's resignation/removal before this market's end date will immediately resolve this market to "Yes", regardless of when the announced resignation/removal goes into effect. If the specified individual is detained, effectively removed from the specified position, or otherwise permanently prevented from fulfilling the duties of the specified position within this market’s timeframe, it will qualify for a “Yes” resolution. The resolution source for this market will be official information from Mohammed bin Salman and the government of Saudi Arabia; however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.