0x12976f28c2b608e0c193c085a3bde97903841fb0
0x12976f28c2b608e0c193c085a3bde97903841fb0
Wallet digest
Activity score
52/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
109
Open notional
$7.08
Total PnL
$-2.8K
Realised
$-10.74
Win rate
33%
3 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 109- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 6?
3 shares @ 56.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$3.05
$1.34
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?
2 shares @ 59.2¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 6, 2026$2.03
$0.83
- YES
Will Bitcoin dip to $74,000 on May 27?
2 shares @ 54.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 28, 2026$2.00
$0.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chicago be between 66-67°F on April 15?
1805 shares @ 0.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 15, 2026$0.00
$-6.32
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $78,000 and $80,000 on May 22?
390 shares @ 42.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 22, 2026$0.00
$-165.92
- NO
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 1?
312 shares @ 66.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 1, 2026$0.00
$-208.51
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $2,000 and $2,100 on May 25?
304 shares @ 49.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-148.86
- UP
Bitcoin Up or Down on May 31?
276 shares @ 57.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-158.33
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $74,000 and $76,000 on May 25?
265 shares @ 40.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 25, 2026$0.00
$-107.20
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Atlanta be between 88-89°F on April 14?
250 shares @ 4.4¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 14, 2026$0.00
$-11.03
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $67,000 on June 2?$234.21Jun 4, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $74,000 May 25-31?$195.22Jun 4, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum reach $2,100 on May 23?$34.14Jun 4, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $2,050 on May 27?$15.00Jun 4, 11:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?$4.05Jun 4, 11:02 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 4?$2.42Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on June 5?$5.96Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 5?$26.94Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 5?$27.94Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 4?$28.97Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 8?$25.80Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on June 6?$36.96Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be between $66,000 and $68,000 on June 4?$45.79Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 4?$47.95Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $72,000 on June 7?$57.66Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the price of Bitcoin be above $74,000 on June 6?$59.60Jun 4, 10:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,700 and $1,800 on June 4?$5.55Jun 3, 20:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $64,000 June 1-7?$2.51Jun 3, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $66,000 on June 6?$1.23Jun 3, 19:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $65,000 on June 3?$25.39Jun 3, 18:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
33% win rate over 3 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 62/100.
3 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $21.09
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 2, 18:27 UTC
- Last active
- Jun 4, 11:02 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 3 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.