Tepid-Crisp
0x13d92fc96b050b5c26634f51b192ea3d86c1b139
Wallet digest
Activity score
62/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
17
Open notional
$15.48
Total PnL
$-8.69
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 17- NO
Will Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?
3 shares @ 98.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$2.74
$0.03
- NO
China x Taiwan military clash by December 31?
2 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$2.11
$0.01
- YES
Will Ken Paxton win the 2026 Texas Republican Primary?
2 shares @ 57.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 26, 2026$1.82
$0.78
- NO
Will the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?
2 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.72
$0.00
- NO
Will any European country expel a U.S. ambassador by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.32
$0.00
- NO
Will the Iranian regime fall by March 31?
1 shares @ 99.5¢·now 100.0¢·exp Mar 31, 2026$1.26
$0.01
- NO
Will Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?
1 shares @ 99.7¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.23
$0.00
- NO
Will Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$1.13
$0.01
- NO
Will J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?
1 shares @ 99.6¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 30, 2026$1.07
$0.00
- NO
Will Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?
1 shares @ 99.9¢·now 100.0¢·exp Apr 21, 2026$1.07
$0.00
Recent activity
- REDEEM0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 7?$1.13Jul 15, 18:04 UTC
- REDEEMIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 13, 2026?$1.65Jul 14, 19:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill any other model be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?$1.34Jul 11, 19:51 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 7?$1.13Jul 11, 01:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 13, 2026?$1.62Jul 11, 01:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill any other model be the best AI model on July 11, 2026?$1.34Jul 5, 08:36 UTC
- REDEEMSam Altman in jail by June 30?$1.07Jul 1, 06:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?$1.18Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- REDEEMPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$1.31Jul 1, 06:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYPutin out as President of Russia by June 30?$1.31Jun 28, 08:40 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ukraine recapture Crimean territory by June 30, 2026?$1.18Jun 28, 08:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$1.91Jun 16, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYSam Altman in jail by June 30?$1.07Jun 13, 08:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$1.91Jun 13, 08:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Israel launch a ground operation in Iran by May 31, 2026?$2.71May 31, 02:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump visit China on May 12, 2026?$1.12May 9, 02:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill J.D. Vance have a diplomatic meeting with Iran by April 30?$1.07Apr 30, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Google have the best AI model at the end of April 2026?$1.23Apr 29, 07:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US officially declare war on Iran by April 30, 2026?$1.72Apr 28, 09:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 80-99 tweets from April 14 to April 21, 2026?$1.07Apr 15, 07:06 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
43 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 51/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 43
- Avg trade size
- $5.21
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Dec 5, 06:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 18:04 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.