Vivid-Chives
0x146e5aab23e989c6cc2073cf51cd014408e0ab0b
Wallet digest
Activity score
59/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
169
Open notional
$779.90
Total PnL
$-1.0K
Realised
$626.86
Win rate
9%
79 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 169- YES
Will 2 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
4562 shares @ 2.5¢·now 4.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$184.77
$70.72
- NO
Will Darline Graham Nordone be the new republican nominee for Senate in South Carolina?
600 shares @ 12.4¢·now 21.9¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$131.40
$56.80
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Wisconsin governor race in 2026?
400 shares @ 24.0¢·now 23.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$94.00
$-2.00
- YES
Will Josh Shapiro win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
1100 shares @ 5.0¢·now 5.1¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$55.55
$0.55
- YES
Will the Iranian regime fall before 2027?
600 shares @ 7.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$39.00
$-3.00
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?
700 shares @ 4.4¢·now 4.2¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$29.05
$-1.75
- YES
Will 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?
291 shares @ 10.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$27.64
$-1.46
- YES
Will the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the September 2026 meeting?
1974 shares @ 2.2¢·now 1.3¢·exp Sep 16, 2026$24.68
$-18.87
- YES
Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?
218 shares @ 8.2¢·now 10.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.93
$5.12
- YES
Will 3 Fed rate cuts happen in 2026?
3000 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.8¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$22.50
$-6.49
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYNATO downs another Russian drone by August 31?$6.74Aug 19, 22:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 19, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$15.98Aug 18, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$1.31Aug 18, 11:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$14.00Aug 18, 08:45 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Aug 18, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?$0.24Aug 17, 22:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?$0.14Aug 17, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?$0.30Aug 17, 22:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill 1 Fed rate cut happen in 2026?$30.41Aug 17, 20:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.22Aug 17, 20:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.22Aug 17, 20:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic not IPO by December 31, 2027?$0.06Aug 17, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$6.25Aug 17, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$1.32Aug 17, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$4.40Aug 17, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.44Aug 17, 19:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.22Aug 17, 19:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.22Aug 17, 19:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 25 bps after the October 2026 meeting?$0.22Aug 17, 19:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
52/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
9% win rate over 79 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
36 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 35/100.
79 closed markets, 9% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 36
- Avg trade size
- $12.61
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 8, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 19, 22:14 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 79 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.