Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?
Probability
6¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-1.3pp
24h Vol
$990.03
Liquidity
$25.6K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-3.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 1 factor- 01Price move
Down 1pp over 24h
Now 6¢; flat in the last hour.
What to track next
- Set an alert at the next ±5pp probability move so you find out before the next leg.
- Add to your watchlist — Home will show probability deltas since your last visit.
- Compare against sibling markets in the same event below — divergent pricing across related contracts is the cleanest tell.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Primaryconsensus of credible reportingLinkTypeNews consensusConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: consensus of credible reporting
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary news consensus source and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Dec 31, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 3700.1h
Price movement
-1.3pp over the last 24h, now 6¢.
Biggest hourly move: -3.0pp at 11:00 (to 5¢).
Show 2 hourly moves
- 12:00 · -3.0pp → 5¢
- 11:00 · -3.0pp → 5¢
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
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Market Description
The market will resolve to "Yes" if Lee "Faker" Sang-hyeok is officially announced as the Finals MVP of any international event in 2026 (such as First Stand, MSI, Esports World Cup, Worlds, or any other officially recognized global Riot Games LoL tournament). Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". This market may resolve to “No” when it becomes impossible for Faker to win such an award (e.g., if his team is eliminated from all remaining international events without him receiving an MVP, or the season concludes without qualification). This market will resolve to “No” if no Finals MVP Award has been officially announced for Faker by December 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET. The primary resolution sources for this market will be official LoL Esports channels and Riot Games (https://lolesports.com); however, a consensus of credible reporting may also be used.
Why this category?
confidence: highCategory
Source
Matched term
world cupReason
World Cup — Sports (qualified by election overrides above).
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Faker win a Finals MVP Award at an international event in 2026?"?
As of Wed, 29 Jul 2026 19:53:42 GMT, YES is priced at 6% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -1.3pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -3.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Dec 31, 2026 (2026-12-31T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$990.03 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $66.0K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $25.6K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.1¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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