0x1491cfca0cdf13c3ae9728401698ff07e636e53d
0x1491cfca0cdf13c3ae9728401698ff07e636e53d
Wallet digest
Activity score
98/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
10
Open notional
$65.53
Total PnL
$16.13
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Will the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?
30 shares @ 33.0¢·now 98.8¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$29.94
$19.94
- NO
Will the US acquire part of Greenland in 2026?
12 shares @ 85.0¢·now 93.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$10.83
$0.93
- NO
Will the Democrats win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
11 shares @ 56.0¢·now 54.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$6.10
$-0.17
- YES
Will the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?
12 shares @ 56.6¢·now 49.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$5.98
$-0.86
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Iowa Senate race in 2026?
8 shares @ 61.0¢·now 58.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.68
$-0.20
- NO
Will the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?
10 shares @ 49.5¢·now 44.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$4.56
$-0.51
- YES
Will the Republicans win the Texas Senate race in 2026?
3 shares @ 61.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$1.69
$-0.17
- NO
Will China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?
6 shares @ 22.0¢·now 13.5¢·exp Jan 31, 2026$0.81
$-0.51
- YES
Will the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?
6 shares @ 20.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.60
$-0.67
- YES
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
3 shares @ 57.0¢·now 9.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.33
$-1.65
Recent activity
- REDEEMIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$0.00Jul 21, 21:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran military action against a Gulf State on July 20?$2.17Jul 19, 09:39 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 15 and 20 minutes long?$0.00Jul 17, 03:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump's Speech to the Nation be between 15 and 20 minutes long?$1.68Jul 16, 09:39 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada decrease the target for the overnight rate by 50+ bps at the October interest rate announcement?$10.00Jul 16, 05:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Iranian regime fall before 2027?$13.72Jul 16, 04:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?$0.00Jun 25, 15:39 UTC
- REDEEMStarmer out by June 26, 2026?$0.00Jun 22, 13:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Durable Goods Orders MoM be between -4% and -2% in May?$1.68Jun 22, 01:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Republicans win the Ohio governor race in 2026?$5.17Jun 21, 04:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYStarmer out by June 26, 2026?$8.46Jun 20, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran diplomatic meeting by June 15, 2026?$3.13Jun 20, 01:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$6.81Jun 19, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the Ohio Senate race in 2026?$6.96Jun 19, 09:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill Robert Kenyon win the 2026 Makerfield by-election?$0.00Jun 19, 05:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Democrats win the South Carolina Senate race in 2026?$1.31Jun 18, 12:17 UTC
- REDEEMWill Warsh say "FED" during June Press Conference?$14.97Jun 17, 21:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 4.0% and 5.0%?$1.37Jun 17, 14:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 200-219 tweets from June 12 to June 19, 2026?$5.11Jun 16, 16:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Elon Musk post 40-64 tweets from June 13 to June 15, 2026?$5.51Jun 15, 19:32 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
32 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 32
- Avg trade size
- $5.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 25, 04:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 21, 21:08 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.