Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
Probability
28¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-2.0pp
24h Vol
$2.7K
Liquidity
$31.7K
Probability (last 7 days)
+2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 2 factors- 1
Down 2pp over 24h
Now 28¢; flat in the last hour.
- 2
Resolution-risk signal firing
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
AI prose summary
Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.
Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves
- 0s agoResolveLOW
Market resolves in 5986.2h
- 13:48SignalLOW
Signal · Resolution risk
Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.
- 13:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 28¢
- 12:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.0pp
to 28¢
- 10:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -3.5pp
to 28¢
- 09:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 27¢
- 08:00PriceMEDIUM
Probability down -4.5pp
to 27¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 11.0pp
to 32¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 10.0pp
to 32¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 32¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 32¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 8.0pp
to 32¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 31¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.0pp
to 30¢
- 3d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 31¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.5pp
to 30¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 31¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 6.5pp
to 30¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 7.0pp
to 32¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 5.0pp
to 31¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
- 4d agoPriceMEDIUM
Probability up 4.0pp
to 31¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.
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Market Description
This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Dec 31, 2026
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- Not specified in metadata
- Market type
- Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
- Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Alerts
In-app banners work now. Email / Telegram / Discord delivery lands when the backend alert dispatcher ships (needs RESEND_API_KEY + per-user webhook storage).
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