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OtherMulti-outcomeExpires Dec 31, 2026

Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?

Probability

28¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-2.0pp

24h Vol

$2.7K

Liquidity

$31.7K

Probability (last 7 days)

+2.0pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 14:00Apr 25, 2026, 13:46
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Down 2pp over 24h

    Now 28¢; flat in the last hour.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

 

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 5986.2h

    LOW
  • 13:48Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 5986h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
  • 13:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 12:00Price

    Probability down -3.0pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 10:00Price

    Probability down -3.5pp

    to 28¢

    MEDIUM
  • 09:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 08:00Price

    Probability down -4.5pp

    to 27¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 11.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 10.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 8.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.0pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 3d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability up 6.5pp

    to 30¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability up 7.0pp

    to 32¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability up 5.0pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
  • 4d agoPrice

    Probability up 4.0pp

    to 31¢

    MEDIUM
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Market Description

This market will resolve to the individual who officially holds the position of the head of state of Venezuela on Dec 31, 2026 at 12 PM ET. For the purposes of this market, "officially holds" refers to the individual that was formally appointed, confirmed (if confirmation is required), and sworn in as the head of state of Venezuela or otherwise confirmed by official government information as being the head of state of Venezuela. If the Venezuelan government does not clearly state who is the head of state, the market will resolve to the individual who is listed as the Head of State by the UN (see: https://www.un.org/dgacm/en/content/protocol/hshgnfa). In the event that more than one official head of state is listed by the Venezuelan government, this market will resolve to the individual who is listed as having primary status. If no distinction is made, the market will resolve to the individual who first assumed the position. If no individual holds the position this market will resolve to “No Head of State”. The following do NOT constitute "officially holding" the role: nominated, announced, or designated as the head of state of Venezuela but appointment not yet effective; appointed with an effective date after Dec 31, 2026; previously served as the head of state of Venezuela but term has expired, resigned, or been terminated before Dec 31, 2026; serving as the head of state of Venezuela in a consultant, contractor, or unofficial capacity; named as successor or heir apparent to the head of state of Venezuela but not yet appointed; or holding a different role with oversight of the head of state of Venezuela but not the specified position itself. The primary resolution source will be official information from the UN recognized government of Venezuela. If the Government of Venezuela does not clearly state who is the head of state, information from the UN and a consensus of credible reporting may be used. Note: this market is mutually exclusive.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
Dec 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Not specified in metadata
Market type
Multi-outcome (neg-risk)
  • Part of a multi-outcome event (neg-risk): only one market can resolve YES.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
Deliver

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