0x1516df6aecb4b039448590fdb9dcfd85c4183f5a
0x1516df6aecb4b039448590fdb9dcfd85c4183f5a
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$399.96
Total PnL
$18.74
Realised
$25.75
Win rate
65%
26 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- YES
Will Russia enter Dopropillia by December 31, 2026?
56 shares @ 57.0¢·now 73.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$40.64
$8.88
- NO
Will Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?
148 shares @ 17.3¢·now 20.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$29.64
$3.97
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by October 31, 2026?
29 shares @ 82.7¢·now 88.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$25.93
$1.70
- YES
Will Russia capture Bilytske by December 31, 2026?
33 shares @ 66.7¢·now 70.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$23.40
$1.27
- NO
Russia x Ukraine ceasefire by December 31, 2026?
27 shares @ 72.3¢·now 78.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$21.35
$1.69
- YES
Will Russia enter Oleksiievo-Druzhkivka by September 30?
36 shares @ 34.9¢·now 49.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$17.78
$5.24
- NO
Will Ukraine re-enter Myrnohrad by December 31?
15 shares @ 89.0¢·now 90.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$13.35
$0.22
- YES
Will Russia enter Druzkhivka by December 31, 2026?
35 shares @ 27.5¢·now 37.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.80
$3.28
- YES
Will Russia capture Lyman by December 31, 2026?
20 shares @ 48.1¢·now 56.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$11.21
$1.58
- NO
Zelenskyy out as Ukraine president by end of 2026?
12 shares @ 82.6¢·now 92.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$11.20
$1.20
Recent activity
- TRADESELLUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.79Jul 29, 02:43 UTC
- TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$4.73Jul 29, 02:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.70Jul 29, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 29, 00:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.85Jul 28, 23:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Novyi Donbas by October 31?$1.40Jul 28, 22:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $85 in July?$1.45Jul 28, 22:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$2.37Jul 28, 22:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS-Iran 60 day negotiation period extended?$1.10Jul 28, 22:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Kupiansk-Vuzlovyi by December 31?$1.02Jul 28, 21:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture all of Huliaipole by September 30?$18.80Jul 28, 20:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump meet with Netanyahu by July 31, 2026?$2.47Jul 28, 18:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Russia capture Dovha Balka by September 30?$8.03Jul 28, 17:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win the next Ingushetia Parliament elections?$1.51Jul 28, 16:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win the next Mordovia Parliament elections?$1.03Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win the next Karelia Parliament elections?$1.03Jul 28, 16:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia win the next Tyumen Oblast Parliament elections?$1.25Jul 28, 16:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Iran ceasefire continues through August 15?$1.35Jul 28, 15:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill United Russia (ER) gain the most seats in the next Russian parliamentary election?$1.45Jul 28, 14:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by July 24?$1.40Jul 28, 13:41 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
55/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
65% win rate over 26 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
45 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 29/100.
26 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 45
- Avg trade size
- $5.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 26, 19:53 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 29, 02:43 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 26 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.