Lucky-Quiche
0x152f67a53948be8e8999a5badb4a4b083909c7e7
Wallet digest
Activity score
58/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
110
Open notional
$357.49
Total PnL
$-11.2K
Realised
$-1.6K
Win rate
8%
13 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 110- YES
Iran full airspace closure by July 31?
5229 shares @ 3.8¢·now 6.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$337.28
$137.29
- YES
Will the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?
301 shares @ 5.0¢·now 2.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$8.27
$-6.73
- YES
US reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?
86 shares @ 5.8¢·now 6.0¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$5.14
$0.14
- YES
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?
875 shares @ 2.2¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$3.94
$-15.06
- YES
Iran leadership change by July 31?
203 shares @ 2.5¢·now 1.1¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$2.33
$-2.67
- YES
Israel x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?
96 shares @ 20.8¢·now 0.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$0.53
$-19.47
- NO
Iran x Israel/US conflict ends by April 7?
56834 shares @ 0.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-449.95
- YES
US x Iran ceasefire by March 31?
50016 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 1, 1970$0.00
$-359.96
- YES
Iran closes its airspace by May 15?
17988 shares @ 2.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 15, 2026$0.00
$-499.98
- YES
Epstein client list released by June 30?
15333 shares @ 5.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-899.95
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 31?$5.00Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS reissues Iran oil sanction relief by July 31?$5.00Jul 28, 14:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$100.00Jul 28, 14:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 31?$100.00Jul 28, 06:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 27?$50.00Jul 25, 19:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran leadership change by July 31?$5.00Jul 25, 19:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$100.00Jul 24, 16:21 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$100.00Jul 24, 10:20 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$100.00Jul 24, 04:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Iran announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$10.00Jul 23, 16:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$150.00Jul 23, 16:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$90.00Jul 23, 10:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 24?$50.00Jul 22, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US announce withdrawal from MOU negotiations by July 24?$10.00Jul 22, 18:43 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 21, 20:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$4.00Jul 21, 18:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYIran full airspace closure by July 21?$25.00Jul 21, 18:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Trump attend 0 World Cup matches?$0.00Jul 21, 15:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYIsrael x Lebanon diplomatic meeting by July 31, 2026?$20.00Jul 21, 14:03 UTC
- TRADESELLIsrael closes its airspace by July 31?$20.28Jul 21, 13:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
8% win rate over 13 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
13 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $37.27
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 12, 00:12 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 14:30 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 13 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.