Quick-Witted-Cookie
0x15b368bf101c3bc174e9d336a1701d707a868c9f
Wallet digest
Activity score
88/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
5
Open notional
$223.95
Total PnL
$3.79
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
- NO
Kharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?
100 shares @ 94.5¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$98.45
$3.95
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 11?
62 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.7¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$61.35
$-0.06
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 11?
28 shares @ 99.5¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$27.69
$-0.01
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on August 11?
21 shares @ 99.8¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$20.87
$-0.08
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 11?
16 shares @ 99.4¢·now 99.4¢·exp Aug 11, 2026$15.60
$0.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 29°C or higher on August 11?$20.96Aug 10, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Mexico City be 21°C on August 11?$27.71Aug 10, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 31°C on August 11?$15.60Aug 10, 09:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 30°C on August 11?$61.41Aug 10, 09:47 UTC
- REDEEMFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$126.00Aug 1, 06:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYFarsi Island no longer under Iranian control by July 31?$125.75Jul 30, 03:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by August 31?$94.50Jul 30, 03:01 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$220.00Jul 1, 06:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$90.91May 30, 01:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 12 earthquakes of magnitude 7.0 or higher worldwide by June 30?$118.88May 30, 01:22 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$33.00May 25, 06:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$5.00May 25, 06:43 UTC
- REDEEMWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$171.55May 25, 06:43 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 5 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$32.80May 16, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 4 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$4.95May 16, 10:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be exactly 3 earthquakes of magnitude 6.5 or higher worldwide from May 18 - 24?$166.65May 16, 10:49 UTC
- REDEEMWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 4 2026?$205.05May 9, 01:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill WTI Crude Oil (WTI) hit (HIGH) $130 Week of May 4 2026?$203.08May 6, 02:25 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by April 30?$50.45May 6, 02:23 UTC
- TRADESELLPete Hegseth out as Secretary of Defense by April 30?$52.98Apr 27, 12:47 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
22 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 66/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 22
- Avg trade size
- $72.13
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Mar 25, 00:17 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 10, 09:48 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.