Authentic-Auction
0x16865bd8e51cb619653b319b8694282053659240
Wallet digest
Activity score
45/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
1
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-1.1K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$18.37Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by June 30?$18.30Jun 17, 01:34 UTC
- REDEEMWill Norway win on 2026-06-16?$18.29Jun 17, 00:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-06-16?$18.25Jun 16, 23:51 UTC
- REDEEMWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?$18.26Jun 13, 15:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by June 12, 2026?$17.53Jun 12, 01:54 UTC
- REDEEMWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?$17.53Jun 1, 12:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?$17.37May 8, 07:46 UTC
- REDEEMUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$17.20May 8, 07:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS x Iran permanent peace deal by April 30, 2026?$17.06Apr 29, 11:00 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$17.24Feb 11, 17:03 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Fed decrease interest rates by 50+ bps after the March 2026 meeting?$17.17Feb 7, 00:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - February 5, 12:00AM-4:00AM ET$1.1KFeb 5, 06:27 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on January 17?$33.66Feb 5, 06:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in London be 13°C or higher on January 17?$33.63Jan 17, 10:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
1/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
9 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 57/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 9
- Avg trade size
- $136.01
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 17, 10:05 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 1, 06:09 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.