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GeopoliticsExpires May 31, 2026

Will Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by May 31?

Probability

3¢

1h

+0.0pp

24h

-0.1pp

24h Vol

$6.4K

Liquidity

$56.9K

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.4pp 7d
Apr 18, 2026, 17:00Apr 25, 2026, 16:57
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB

Why did it move?

Structured · 2 factors
  1. 1

    Light volume — move on a thin book

    Only $6.4k traded against $56.9k of visible liquidity (0.11× turnover). Treat the move as low-confidence until volume confirms.

  2. 2

    Resolution-risk signal firing

    Expires in 847h with open resolution ambiguity.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

AI prose summary

Loading prose summary — see the structured breakdown above.

Prose narration of the same metrics shown in the structured breakdown above. Cites only the market data on this page — no news, no predictions. Use the structured factors as the canonical answer; this is here for readability.

Timeline — news, trades, signals, price moves

AllTradesSignalsPrice
  • 0s agoResolve

    Market resolves in 847.0h

    LOW
  • 16:57Signal

    Signal · Resolution risk

    Expires in 847h with open resolution ambiguity.

    LOW
updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market.

updated 0s ago·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

12
Same eventWill Reza Pahlavi enter Iran by...?
Category · Geopolitics

Market Description

If Reza Pahlavi visits Iran between market creation and May 31, 2026, 11:59 PM ET, this market will resolve to "Yes". Otherwise, this market will resolve to "No". For the purpose of this market, a "visit" is defined as Reza Pahlavi physically entering the terrestrial territory of Iran. Whether or not Reza Pahlavi enters Iranian airspace or maritime territory during the timeframe of this market will have no bearing on a positive resolution. The primary resolution source for this market will be a consensus of credible reporting.

Resolution & Risk

LOW risk
End date
May 31, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
consensus of credible reportingNews consensusextracted · medium
Market type
Binary
  • No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Alerts

¢
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Top Holders

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