Wallet profile

Arid-Emergence

0x16fd439000aa9d28f1dbe216cd283746ab61b4d3

activity 60/100

Wallet digest

active

Activity score

60/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

117

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-32.6K

Realised

$885.90

Win rate

81%

21 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 117

Recent activity

  • YIELD$0.13Jul 7, 00:19 UTC
  • YIELD$0.16Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.16Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.16Jul 4, 00:17 UTC
  • YIELD$0.16Jul 3, 00:16 UTC
  • YIELD$0.15Jul 2, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.15Jul 1, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.16Jun 30, 00:13 UTC
  • YIELD$0.15Jun 29, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.21Jun 28, 00:12 UTC
  • YIELD$0.21Jun 27, 00:18 UTC
  • YIELD$0.20Jun 26, 00:19 UTC
  • YIELD$0.20Jun 25, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.19Jun 24, 00:15 UTC
  • YIELD$0.17Jun 23, 00:13 UTC
  • TAKER_REBATE$14.68Jun 23, 00:10 UTC
  • YIELD$0.18Jun 22, 00:11 UTC
  • YIELD$0.19Jun 21, 00:14 UTC
  • YIELD$0.20Jun 20, 00:17 UTC
  • YIELD$0.21Jun 19, 00:13 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

43/100
read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Late-entry profile

Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

81% win rate over 21 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100
no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal
pass

17 live trades, 1 ledger trades, copy-risk 43/100.

Resolved-only track record
review

21 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage
missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk
missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity
missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation
missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution
missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

100%

Sample

low

1 ledger trades

Top market concentration

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?

$5.1K · 100% of recorded whale volume

Recorded market concentration

Will the New York Knicks win the 2026 NBA Finals?100% of recorded volume$5.1K

Profile dimensions

Activity31 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence70 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry29 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk43 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time)
17
Avg trade size
$40.40
Top category
—
Category concentration
0%
First seen
Jun 7, 23:41 UTC
Last active
Jul 7, 00:19 UTC
Win rate sample
21 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

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updated 01:42:39 UTC·src:Polymarket Data