Weighty-Buffer
0x173314380de52766200850634f85a1b7a88b9411
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
37
Open notional
$8.3K
Total PnL
$-4.7K
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 37- NO
Strait of Hormuz traffic returns to normal by August 31?
4062 shares @ 81.6¢·now 90.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$3.7K
$363.01
- NO
Mitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?
3117 shares @ 62.4¢·now 69.5¢·exp Jan 3, 2027$2.2K
$222.19
- NO
Will 40 ships transit the Strait of Hormuz on any day by July 31, 2026?
971 shares @ 67.8¢·now 99.2¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$962.59
$304.58
- YES
Will Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?
1134 shares @ 68.8¢·now 73.6¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$834.30
$54.37
- NO
Will there be between 20 and 40 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?
201 shares @ 49.5¢·now 98.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$198.11
$98.51
- NO
Will Steve Witkoff sign a U.S. x Iran deal by July 31?
139 shares @ 88.0¢·now 99.5¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$138.48
$15.94
- NO
Trump signs housing bill by end of July?
109 shares @ 59.9¢·now 99.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$108.42
$43.10
- YES
Will William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?
111 shares @ 77.3¢·now 87.0¢·exp Aug 4, 2026$96.80
$10.75
- YES
Will OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?
253 shares @ 62.7¢·now 33.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$84.62
$-73.81
- YES
0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?
725 shares @ 6.9¢·now 5.8¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$41.66
$-8.34
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill there be between 40 and 60 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$2.3KJul 28, 21:57 UTC
- REDEEMWill Troy Jackson be the Maine Senate Democratic nominee on July 27?$1.1KJul 28, 06:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?$4.34Jul 26, 16:10 UTC
- TRADEBUY0 ships transit Hormuz on any date by July 31?$50.00Jul 26, 14:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill William Lawrence be the Democratic nominee for MI-07?$82.45Jul 26, 02:48 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$1.9KJul 26, 02:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$153.55Jul 21, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$662.07Jul 21, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYMitch McConnell steps down from Senate before his term ends?$1.2KJul 21, 04:06 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Alibaba have the best Chinese AI model at the end of July 2026?$789.68Jul 19, 14:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill 225 or more ships transit the Strait of Hormuz between July 6-July 12?$475.26Jul 18, 21:51 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$295.08Jul 17, 23:37 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$186.56Jul 17, 23:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Anthropic extend Claude Fable 5 paid-plan access again by July 19?$348.76Jul 17, 23:33 UTC
- REDEEMIran successfully targets shipping on July 14?$667.43Jul 17, 22:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill there be between 0 and 20 average daily transits of the Strait of Hormuz on July 31?$226.41Jul 17, 09:56 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?$0.56Jul 16, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?$15.34Jul 16, 09:35 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?$79.09Jul 16, 05:29 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill OpenAI launch a new consumer hardware product by December 31, 2026?$23.00Jul 15, 23:17 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
46 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 71/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 46
- Avg trade size
- $347.39
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 23:30 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 21:57 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.