Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?
Probability
20¢
1h
+0.0pp
24h
-3.5pp
24h Vol
$0.00
Liquidity
$9.7K
Canonical status
confidence: highSource status (Polymarket)
Derived status (Orrery)
Reason
Active market, expiry beyond the near-expiry window.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 3, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryStatements from Mitch McConnellTypePublic-figure statementConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Probability (last 7 days)
-2.0pp 7dWhy did it move?
Structured · 3 factors- 01Price move
Down 4pp over 24h
Now 20¢; flat in the last hour.
- 02Active signal
Resolution-risk observation firing
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
- 03Liquidity
Thin liquidity
Only $9.7k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.
What to track next
- Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.
Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.
Resolution & Risk
LOW risk- End date
- Jan 3, 2027
- UMA status
- n/a
- Resolution source
- PrimaryStatements from Mitch McConnellTypePublic-figure statementConfidenceextracted · medium
- Market type
- Binary
- No obvious resolution-risk signals in metadata.
Verification Brief
A guided checklist for what must be proven before this market is treated as reliable context.
The market is live. Track source, liquidity, and wording before escalating it to a resolution-sensitive task.
Create trust-state alertVerification goal
Map resolution-relevant sources to the exact criteria needed to avoid misreading price as settlement.
What needs proof
Primary source
requiredConfirm the primary public-figure statement and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question.
Current evidence: Statements from Mitch McConnell
Contract wording
requiredExtract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule.
Orrery verification task Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? State: Live — live monitoring Need sources for: 1. Primary source: Confirm the primary public-figure statement and whether it directly answers the market's resolution question. 2. Contract wording: Extract the exact condition that makes YES resolve true and note any exclusions, time zone, deadline, or fallback rule. 3. Liquidity context: Check whether the move is supported by enough liquidity and volume to treat it as meaningful context. Drop only durable links that map to one criterion. Research only. Not trade advice.
Orrery verification brief Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends? State: live monitoring Verify: Primary source + Contract wording Price is not settlement. Research only. Not trade advice.
Market link goes in reply
A controlled loop for durable sources. Every source must answer one criterion from this Verification Brief.
Sources
0
Criteria covered
0
Reviewed
0
Awaiting review
0
Submit a source mapped to a criterion
Recent source checks
Pilot audit summary
Research only · Not trade advice · Every source maps to one criterion
Timeline
critical · price · trade flowCritical
- Jan 3, 00:00 UTCScheduled resolutionLOW
Market resolves in 4873.9h
- 22:07SignalLOW
Resolution risk
Resolution source is ambiguous or relies on public-figure statements — verify before treating price as the market view.
Price movement
-3.5pp over the last 24h, now 20¢.
Biggest hourly move: +4.5pp at Jun 12, 13:00 UTC (to 24¢).
Show top 8 of 31 hourly moves
- 22:00 · -3.5pp → 20¢
- 20:00 · -3.5pp → 20¢
- Jun 12, 22:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 24¢
- Jun 12, 15:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 24¢
- Jun 12, 14:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 24¢
- Jun 12, 13:00 UTC · +4.5pp → 24¢
- Jun 9, 17:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 24¢
- Jun 9, 15:00 UTC · +4.0pp → 24¢
Active signals
Recent Trades
No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.
Related Markets
3Market Description
This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.
Why this category?
confidence: mediumCategory
Source
Matched term
senateReason
Question text contains "senate" — matched the Politics keyword rule.
Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.
FAQ — questions readers actually ask
What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?"?
As of Sat, 13 Jun 2026 22:07:27 GMT, YES is priced at 20% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -3.5pp in the last 24 hours, +0.0pp in the last hour, and -2.0pp in the last 7 days.
When does this market resolve?
This market resolves by Jan 3, 2027 (2027-01-03T00:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from the market description on Polymarket.
What source determines the outcome?
Resolution is sourced from the market description on Polymarket. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.
How much is being traded on this market?
$0.00 of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $115.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $9.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 1.0¢.
Is this a trade recommendation?
No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.
How fresh is this data and where does it come from?
This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.
Alerts
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