Will Mitch McConnell step down from the Senate before his term ends?

1. 1

   Down 1pp over 24h

   Now 21¢; flat in the last hour.

2. 2

   Resolution-risk signal firing

   Expires in 6055h with open resolution ambiguity.

3. 3

   Thin liquidity

   Only $17.0k of visible book — small orders can move the line. Treat the probability as a soft estimate.

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This market will resolve to “Yes” if Mitch McConnell formally announces an intention to step down or otherwise vacates his U.S. Senate seat before his current term is scheduled to end (January 3, 2027, 11:59 PM ET). Otherwise, this market will resolve to “No.” An announcement will qualify only if it indicates that McConnell will leave office prior to the scheduled end of his term. Statements reaffirming an existing plan to retire at the end of his term will not qualify. The primary resolution sources will be official statements from Mitch McConnell, his office or representatives, and/or official communications from the U.S. Senate or government.