0x180cf4515a27ff20c3b033831ec0d8386c5e7a2d
0x180cf4515a27ff20c3b033831ec0d8386c5e7a2d
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
33
Open notional
$18.25
Total PnL
$-70.87
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 33- YES
Will Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
23 shares @ 8.6¢·now 14.4¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.29
$1.33
- YES
US obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?
50 shares @ 6.0¢·now 6.5¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$3.25
$0.25
- YES
Will Gavin Newsom win the 2028 Democratic presidential nomination?
15 shares @ 25.4¢·now 19.9¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$3.06
$-0.86
- YES
Will Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
54 shares @ 3.7¢·now 4.3¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$2.32
$0.32
- YES
Will Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
43 shares @ 7.0¢·now 4.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.86
$-1.14
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
12 shares @ 25.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.47
$-1.47
- YES
Hantavirus pandemic in 2026?
38 shares @ 5.3¢·now 3.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.23
$-0.77
- YES
Human moon landing in 2026?
50 shares @ 5.9¢·now 2.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.15
$-1.79
- YES
Will Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?
89 shares @ 2.3¢·now 0.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2025$0.62
$-1.38
- YES
Will Elon Musk buy Ryanair?
213 shares @ 0.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$0.00
$-2.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill Harvey Weinstein be sentenced to less than 5 years in prison?$2.12Jul 10, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYPresident Trump to Attend World Cup Final?$3.17Jul 10, 19:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill USA win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.12Jul 6, 22:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYUS obtains Iranian enriched uranium by September 30?$3.03Jul 4, 19:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Brazil win the 2026 FIFA World Cup?$3.11Jul 4, 19:16 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 5?$10.00Jul 4, 19:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 11?$0.00Jul 4, 19:13 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 11?$13.61Jul 4, 19:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Pope Leo XIV win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?$2.10Jun 1, 14:30 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Reza Pahlavi be head of state in Iran end of 2026?$3.00Jun 1, 14:28 UTC
- TRADEBUYOver $3M committed to the Printr public sale?$2.14May 22, 18:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk buy Ryanair?$2.08May 22, 18:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYHantavirus pandemic in 2026?$2.09May 22, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYKharg Island no longer under Iranian control by June 30?$2.00May 22, 17:56 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Donald Trump announce that the United States blockade of the Strait of Hormuz has been lifted by May 31, 2026?$12.57May 12, 17:28 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 11?$0.00Apr 30, 19:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 5?$0.00Apr 30, 19:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 11?$0.00Apr 28, 18:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 5?$0.00Apr 25, 19:20 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $70,000 and $72,000 on March 11?$0.00Apr 24, 19:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
17 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 50/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 17
- Avg trade size
- $3.29
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Apr 8, 20:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 10, 19:41 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.