Loud-Boy-Agenda
0x184b4b04ea85411bd81eaca8b29c22df1fd367b2
Wallet digest
Activity score
99/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$343.74
Total PnL
$4.98
Realised
$-0.07
Win rate
71%
7 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will Elon Musk’s net worth be less than $0.70T on July 31?
20 shares @ 5.0¢·now 99.7¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$20.13
$19.12
- NO
Will J.D. Vance win the 2028 Republican presidential nomination?
34 shares @ 58.4¢·now 57.0¢·exp Nov 7, 2028$19.33
$-0.46
- YES
Will the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?
12 shares @ 80.8¢·now 82.8¢·exp Oct 28, 2026$9.53
$0.22
- NO
Will Lambda's valuation hit (HIGH) $9B by July 31?
6 shares @ 64.7¢·now 97.2¢·exp Aug 1, 2026$6.01
$2.01
- NO
Iran leadership change by August 31?
6 shares @ 92.5¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.87
$0.19
- NO
Will Iran target Ukraine by August 31, 2026?
5 shares @ 95.7¢·now 95.8¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$5.00
$0.00
- NO
Will Moonshot have the best Code Arena | WebDev AI at the end of August 2026?
5 shares @ 28.0¢·now 95.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$4.84
$3.42
- NO
Will Kylian Mbappé win the 2026 Ballon d'Or?
5 shares @ 90.8¢·now 90.1¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$4.61
$-0.03
- YES
Mohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?
23 shares @ 21.0¢·now 19.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$4.50
$-0.35
- NO
Will South Korea ETF (EWY) hit (HIGH) $166 in August?
26 shares @ 19.0¢·now 17.5¢·exp Sep 1, 2026$4.49
$-0.39
Recent activity
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 1?$3.09Aug 1, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?$1.09Aug 1, 14:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill Seattle have between 2 and 2.5 inches of precipitation in July?$1.62Aug 1, 14:34 UTC
- TRADEBUYMohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?$1.21Aug 1, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 2?$2.21Aug 1, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYMohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by December 31, 2026?$1.21Aug 1, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYMohammed Ghalibaf out as Speaker of Iran Parliament by September 30, 2026?$1.24Aug 1, 14:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bad Bunny be the #1 searched person on Google this year?$1.75Aug 1, 14:08 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the Bank of Canada make no change to the target for the overnight rate at the October interest rate announcement?$1.14Aug 1, 13:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Paris be 29°C on August 1?$1.25Aug 1, 13:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US strike 8 countries in 2026?$1.50Aug 1, 13:40 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1?$1.16Aug 1, 13:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 1?$5.20Aug 1, 13:15 UTC
- REDEEMWill NYC have between 2 and 3 inches of precipitation in July?$2.10Aug 1, 13:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 1?$1.55Aug 1, 13:07 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 1?$1.54Aug 1, 13:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 31°C on August 1?$1.58Aug 1, 13:03 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on August 1?$3.57Aug 1, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Cape Town be 27°C on August 1?$1.23Aug 1, 12:59 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the lowest temperature in Hong Kong be 25°C on August 1?$1.26Aug 1, 12:57 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
26/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
71% win rate over 7 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
14/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
47 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 45/100.
7 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 47
- Avg trade size
- $1.44
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Aug 1, 09:37 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 1, 15:31 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 7 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.