Lively-Macaroni
0x1874ce49e3526cfb7d40198c6c4653922e3c5402
Wallet digest
Activity score
50/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
60
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-168.41
Realised
$0.00
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 60- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 24?
226 shares @ 1.3¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 24, 2026$0.00
$-2.94
- YES
Will the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 30?
216 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 30, 2026$0.00
$-3.45
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $76,000 and $78,000 on March 24?
208 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 24, 2026$0.00
$-1.25
- UP
Solana Up or Down - January 17, 8PM ET
200 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 18, 2026$0.00
$-2.20
- NO
Will the price of Ethereum be above $2,800 on January 25?
139 shares @ 1.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-1.53
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be above $90,000 on January 25?
135 shares @ 1.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 25, 2026$0.00
$-2.16
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on March 12?
117 shares @ 3.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 12, 2026$0.00
$-3.64
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,100 and $3,200 on January 14?
113 shares @ 3.7¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 14, 2026$0.00
$-4.20
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $88,000 and $90,000 on January 13?
107 shares @ 5.5¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 13, 2026$0.00
$-5.85
- YES
Will the price of XRP be between $1.70 and $1.80 on January 27?
107 shares @ 2.9¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 27, 2026$0.00
$-3.10
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 9?$73.82Jul 9, 16:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $60,000 on July 9?$70.28Jul 9, 01:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 25?$86.37May 25, 18:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 25?$0.16May 24, 23:55 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be above $1.40 on May 25?$83.71May 24, 23:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be between $1,900 and $2,000 on May 24?$3.14May 23, 22:59 UTC
- REDEEMWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$79.13May 18, 15:00 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$0.10May 18, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?$76.58May 18, 08:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.20 and $1.30 on May 13?$2.02May 12, 17:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill XRP reach $1.70 May 4-10?$3.12May 10, 07:27 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $73,000 on April 19?$1.87Apr 20, 01:38 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $90 and $100 on April 18?$2.31Apr 18, 12:11 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 15?$93.24Apr 18, 12:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on April 15?$91.28Apr 14, 22:36 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 27?$79.82Apr 10, 17:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be above $1.90 on January 25?$0.00Mar 31, 16:32 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Solana be between $70 and $80 on March 30?$3.45Mar 30, 11:08 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Solana be above $120 on January 20?$0.00Mar 29, 20:01 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on March 27?$78.62Mar 27, 07:52 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 0 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
14/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
33 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 52/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $31.50
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jan 30, 17:42 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 9, 16:13 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 0 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.