CryptoExpires May 19, 2026
Creator

Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?

Probability

80¢

1h

-0.4pp

24h

-18.4pp

24h Vol

$38.3K

Liquidity

$1.7K

Canonical status

confidence: high

Source status (Polymarket)

active

Derived status (Orrery)

NEAR EXPIRY

Reason

Resolves in 71h.

The derived status is computed from the source flags plus the live YES price, so a market trading near a rail can read as PRICE-PINNED while upstream is still active. That isn't the same as resolved.

Resolution & Risk

HIGH risk
End date
May 19, 2026
UMA status
n/a
Resolution source
Primary
announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made
Link
strategy.com
Type
Ambiguous wording
Market type
Binary
  • Market expires May 19, 2026 — dispute window active.
  • Wide spread (6.3¢) — liquidity risk on entry/exit.
Read full market rules on Polymarket

Probability (last 7 days)

+0.0pp 7d
1007550250
80¢
May 11, 2026, 05:00 UTCMay 16, 2026, 04:44 UTC
updated 04:44:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·snap:snap_2026-05-16T04-44Z

Why did it move?

Structured · 4 factors
  • 01
    Price move

    Down 18pp over 24h

    Now 80¢; -0.4pp in the last hour.

  • 02
    Volume pressure

    Heavy volume on this book — 22.1× turnover

    $38.3k traded against $1.7k of visible liquidity. The book is being worked, not just quoted.

  • 03
    Active signal

    Resolution-risk observation firing

    Expires in 71h. Spread is extremely wide.

  • 04
    Spread cost

    Wide spread — 6.3¢

    Bid-ask spread is wide enough that intraday moves overstate any tradeable advantage. Most of the headline pp move would be eaten by spread on a market order.

What to track next

  • Verify the resolution source on this page — exchange feed, official release, news consensus — before treating any move as new information.
  • Set an alert for resolution status changes — expiry is in 71 hours.

Verification actions only — never trade recommendations.

Each factor is grounded in a single named metric you can verify on this page — probability, volume, liquidity, signal, resolution state. No predictions, no prose hallucinations.

Timeline

critical · price · trade flow

Critical

  • May 19, 04:00 UTCScheduled resolution

    Market resolves in 71.3h

    HIGH
  • 04:44Signal

    Resolution risk

    Expires in 71h. Spread is extremely wide.

    MEDIUM

Price movement

-18.4pp over the last 24h, now 80¢.

Biggest hourly move: +48.2pp at May 13, 17:00 UTC (to 99¢).

Show top 8 of 17 hourly moves
  • 04:44 · -18.4pp → 80¢
  • 03:00 · -18.0pp → 80¢
  • 02:00 · -17.3pp → 81¢
  • 00:00 · -17.3pp → 80¢
  • 23:00 · -15.3pp → 82¢
  • 18:00 · -15.7pp → 82¢
  • 15:00 · -36.9pp → 61¢
  • May 13, 17:00 UTC · +48.2pp → 99¢
updated 04:44:14 UTC·src:Polymarket CLOB·Polymarket Data

Active signals

Recent Trades

No recent trades visible from the Data API for this market. That usually means liquidity is thin or this market is between event windows.

Open whale feedBrowse related marketsAlert me on the next trade
updated 04:44:14 UTC·src:Polymarket Data

Related Markets

6
Category · Crypto

Market Description

This market will resolve to "Yes" if MicroStrategy Incorporated announces that they have acquired additional Bitcoin between the dates in the title (from 12:00 AM ET on the first date to 11:59 PM ET on the last date). Otherwise, it will resolve to "No". This market will resolve based on announcements made within the market's designated time frame regardless of when the actual purchases were made. The resolution source for this market will be official information from MicroStrategy or Michael Saylor. For reference, MicroStrategy's reported BTC holdings can be tracked at: https://www.strategy.com/purchases

Why this category?

confidence: medium

Category

Crypto

Source

Keyword rule

Matched term

bitcoin

Reason

Question text contains "bitcoin" — matched the Crypto keyword rule.

Categories come from a deterministic engine: manual overrides (highest priority) → sports hard markers → event-tag rules → keyword rules → Gamma category hint → default. The engine is versioned in category-overrides.ts; methodology lives at /methodology.

FAQ — questions readers actually ask

What is the current Polymarket probability for "Will Microstrategy announce a Bitcoin purchase May 12-18?"?

As of Sat, 16 May 2026 04:44:14 GMT, YES is priced at 80% implied probability on Polymarket. The price changed -18.4pp in the last 24 hours, -0.4pp in the last hour, and +0.0pp in the last 7 days.

When does this market resolve?

This market resolves by May 19, 2026 (2026-05-19T04:00:00.000Z). Resolution is determined from https://www.strategy.com/purchases.

What source determines the outcome?

Resolution is sourced from https://www.strategy.com/purchases. Polymarket's UMA optimistic oracle is the final settlement layer; if the published source is ambiguous, UMA tokenholders adjudicate. Source-extraction confidence is shown in the Resolution & Risk block above.

How much is being traded on this market?

$38.3K of trading volume in the last 24 hours. Lifetime volume on Polymarket: $50.6K. Open liquidity in the YES/NO orderbooks: $1.7K. Spread between best bid and best ask: 6.3¢.

Is this a trade recommendation?

No. Orrery describes — never predicts. Every signal on this market carries explicit Evidence, Backtest, and Action tiers. The Action is always one of: Watch only, Inspect timeline, Create alert, Verify source, or Ignore — never Buy or Sell. The probability above is the market's collective implied probability, not a forecast Orrery is publishing.

How fresh is this data and where does it come from?

This page revalidates from the public Polymarket APIs every 30 seconds. Probability and 24h-change come from Gamma; the chart series comes from the CLOB orderbook history; trade and holder data come from the Data API. The fetched-at timestamp on each block tells you exactly how old the underlying upstream pull was.

Alerts

¢
Deliver

In-app banners fire as soon as a rule is satisfied. Email digests are wired to a server-side cron and continue while your tabs are closed. Telegram and Discord are planned — every existing rule will keep working as channels light up.

Top Holders

20 wallets
Open on Polymarket