Buttery-Tangerine
0x189e947b2031f2e19ec8d9a0d6f0308ab5a889d9
Wallet digest
Activity score
49/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
87
Open notional
$0.00
Total PnL
$-7.3K
Realised
$-2.3K
Win rate
49%
47 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 87- YES
Will the highest temperature in Madrid be 40°C on July 8?
3202 shares @ 28.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-896.52
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Paris be 35°C on July 8?
895 shares @ 16.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-149.92
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shenzhen be 30°C on July 8?
879 shares @ 26.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-228.53
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Tel Aviv be 31°C on July 7?
806 shares @ 61.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 7, 2026$0.00
$-495.94
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 29°C on July 9?
642 shares @ 85.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-545.93
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Istanbul be 30°C on July 8?
467 shares @ 70.6¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 8, 2026$0.00
$-329.78
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Beijing be 27°C or below on July 10?
426 shares @ 81.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-348.93
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Shanghai be 33°C on July 9?
403 shares @ 10.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-40.45
- YES
Will the highest temperature in Chengdu be 37°C on July 9?
300 shares @ 11.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 9, 2026$0.00
$-33.00
- NO
Will the highest temperature in Milan be 34°C on July 10?
273 shares @ 59.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 10, 2026$0.00
$-160.94
Recent activity
- REWARD$700.56Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$0.23Jul 15, 05:53 UTC
- REWARD$304.96Jul 15, 00:00 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$5.00Jul 12, 15:31 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 11?$0.00Jul 12, 01:30 UTC
- MAKER_REBATE$2.64Jul 12, 00:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Taipei be 28°C on July 11?$0.39Jul 12, 00:27 UTC
- MERGEWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$30.00Jul 12, 00:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$2.85Jul 12, 00:18 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Milan be 30°C on July 11?$85.64Jul 11, 22:44 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Warsaw be 21°C on July 11?$4.83Jul 11, 22:23 UTC
- REDEEMWill the highest temperature in Istanbul be 28°C on July 11?$3.33Jul 11, 21:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$2.35Jul 11, 19:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$2.60Jul 11, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$2.60Jul 11, 19:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$2.35Jul 11, 19:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$2.35Jul 11, 19:42 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$2.60Jul 11, 19:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$2.60Jul 11, 19:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the highest temperature in Tokyo be 29°C on July 12?$2.30Jul 11, 19:20 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
58/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
49% win rate over 47 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
28 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 34/100.
47 closed markets, 49% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 28
- Avg trade size
- $59.53
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 11, 08:06 UTC
- Last active
- Aug 7, 20:23 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 47 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.