Affectionate-Tributary
0x18aae932df659eacf00babbc6898c8f84343f6ec
Wallet digest
Activity score
80/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
85
Open notional
$7.7K
Total PnL
$-22.9K
Realised
$3.0K
Win rate
100%
8 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 85- NO
Jeffrey Epstein confirmed to be alive before 2027?
2000 shares @ 94.7¢·now 97.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$2.0K
$63.87
- NO
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1500 shares @ 81.3¢·now 95.6¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.4K
$214.00
- NO
Will Venezuela become 51st state?
1000 shares @ 96.4¢·now 97.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$970.00
$6.00
- NO
Will Trump acquire Greenland before 2027?
1000 shares @ 91.0¢·now 96.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$959.46
$49.50
- NO
Will Jean-Luc Mélenchon win the 2027 French presidential election?
1000 shares @ 91.0¢·now 88.5¢·exp Apr 30, 2027$885.00
$-25.00
- NO
Will Delcy Rodríguez be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
1000 shares @ 55.0¢·now 86.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$864.95
$314.98
- NO
Macron out by June 30, 2026?
500 shares @ 79.0¢·now 100.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026$500.00
$105.00
- NO
Will the Democratic Party control the House after the 2026 Midterm elections?
1000 shares @ 22.0¢·now 16.5¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$165.00
$-55.00
- NO
Obama arrested before 2027?
8 shares @ 88.0¢·now 96.4¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$8.03
$0.70
- YES
Will monthly inflation increase by 0.4% in November?
13678 shares @ 4.8¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 18, 2025$0.00
$-661.57
Recent activity
- YIELD$0.01Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 12, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 11, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 10, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 9, 00:21 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 8, 00:22 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 7, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 6, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 5, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 4, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 3, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jul 2, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jul 1, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 30, 00:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 29, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.01Jun 28, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 27, 00:16 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 26, 00:19 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 25, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$0.02Jun 24, 00:18 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
25/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Closed-market sample is still too small to treat the win rate as durable.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
100% win rate over 8 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
No live wallet activity or persistent ledger trades are available.
8 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 0
- Avg trade size
- $0.00
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- May 25, 00:14 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 13, 00:10 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 8 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.