Simple-Bed
0x18de697a860f8a92b4b4a320bf3354b1e2f11f14
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
200
Open notional
$7.69
Total PnL
$-990.43
Realised
$4.32
Win rate
90%
30 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 200- YES
Will the Arizona Diamondbacks win the 2026 World Series?
206 shares @ 0.6¢·now 0.9¢·exp Oct 31, 2026$1.85
$0.62
- YES
Will Stripe have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
2662 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$1.33
$-12.47
- YES
Will Dinorah Figuera be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.75
$-0.25
- YES
Will the Fed increase interest rates by 50+ bps after the July 2026 meeting?
200 shares @ 0.5¢·now 0.4¢·exp Jul 29, 2026$0.70
$-0.30
- YES
Will SHEIN have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
1017 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.51
$-1.53
- YES
Will Parti vert du Québec win the most seats in the 2026 Quebec general election?
944 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 5, 2026$0.47
$-1.42
- YES
Will Aston Martin be the 2026 F1 Constructors' Champion?
200 shares @ 0.7¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 6, 2026$0.30
$-1.10
- YES
Will Alex Padilla win the California Governor Election in 2026?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Nov 3, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will Eduardo Bolsonaro win the 2026 Brazilian presidential election?
500 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Oct 4, 2026$0.25
$-0.75
- YES
Will Perplexity AI have the highest IPO Market Cap 2026?
417 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.1¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.21
$-0.62
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYAndrew Tate released from custody by December 31, 2026?$10.96Jul 19, 13:22 UTC
- TRADESELLWill England win on 2026-07-18?$10.35Jul 18, 23:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill England win on 2026-07-18?$10.02Jul 18, 22:10 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China unban Bitcoin by 2027?$6.00Jul 17, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China invade Taiwan by end of 2026?$3.70Jul 17, 14:54 UTC
- TRADESELLWill China’s 2026 annual GDP growth (Y/Y) be between 6.0% and 7.0%?$0.92Jul 17, 14:54 UTC
- TRADEBUYFrance vs. Spain: Team to Advance$3.09Jul 14, 19:23 UTC
- TRADESELLWill Vladimir Padrino López be the leader of Venezuela end of 2026?$2.85Jul 14, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?$2.89Jul 13, 18:17 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Elon Musk post 90-114 tweets from July 13 to July 15, 2026?$2.15Jul 13, 18:17 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Fed Pause–Cut–Pause in the next three decisions (Jul–Sep–Oct)?$0.07Jul 13, 02:21 UTC
- TRADESELLWill the Republican Party win the CA-45 House seat?$4.82Jul 12, 23:47 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$23.10Jul 12, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Argentina win on 2026-07-11?$7.70Jul 12, 01:19 UTC
- TRADEBUYNorway vs. England: Team to Advance$10.28Jul 11, 22:45 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Norway win on 2026-07-11?$10.36Jul 11, 19:18 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 27 be between 83 and 86?$0.96Jul 11, 07:26 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the U.S. flu hospitalization rate per 100,000 in Week 27 be between 83 and 86?$0.04Jul 11, 07:12 UTC
- YIELD$0.00Jul 11, 00:12 UTC
- TRADESELLSpain vs. Belgium: Team to Advance$52.26Jul 10, 21:05 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
72/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
90% win rate over 30 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
29/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
41 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.
30 closed markets, 90% win rate.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 41
- Avg trade size
- $7.30
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jul 7, 16:58 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 19, 13:22 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 30 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.