Wallet digest

active

Activity score

30/100

Performance measurable

Open positions

Open notional

$0.00

Total PnL

$-14.20

Realised

$-0.70

Win rate

14 closed

Guardrail: wallet activity is not profitability, and large trades are not smart money. Use the sample, concentration, and copy-risk dimensions before reading this profile as meaningful.

Largest open positions

showing 10 of 14

DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 4:50AM-4:55AM ET
1000 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 1:55AM-2:00AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 2:40AM-2:45AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 30, 9:50AM-9:55AM ET
100 shares @ 1.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 30, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Aug 12, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 29, 6:10AM-6:15AM ET
4 shares @ 23.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 29, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 6:00AM-6:05AM ET
4 shares @ 24.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 2, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 1, 5:55AM-6:00AM ET
3 shares @ 29.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 1, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
UP
Bitcoin Up or Down - June 24, 5:25AM-5:30AM ET
2 shares @ 42.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jun 24, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00
DOWN
Bitcoin Up or Down - July 2, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET
2 shares @ 48.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jul 3, 2026
$0.00
$-1.00

Recent activity

TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.07Aug 12, 08:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:10AM-4:15AM ET$1.06Aug 12, 08:10 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$0.87Aug 12, 08:10 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 12, 4:00AM-8:00AM ET$1.03Aug 12, 08:09 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - August 11, 11:45PM-11:50PM ET$1.05Aug 12, 03:46 UTC
TRADESELLSPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11?$0.94Aug 11, 08:07 UTC
TRADEBUYSPY (SPY) Up or Down on August 11?$1.02Aug 11, 08:07 UTC
TRADESELLWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$0.96Aug 6, 17:15 UTC
TRADEBUYWill JD Vance win the 2028 US Presidential Election?$1.03Aug 6, 17:15 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down on August 6?$0.99Aug 6, 15:37 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down on August 6?$1.00Aug 6, 15:36 UTC
TRADESELLWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?$0.92Jul 31, 14:51 UTC
TRADEBUYWill Bitcoin dip to $60,000 by December 31, 2026?$1.01Jul 31, 14:51 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$0.58Jul 31, 06:23 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 31, 2:20AM-2:25AM ET$1.03Jul 31, 06:22 UTC
TRADESELLUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$1.03Jul 31, 06:22 UTC
TRADEBUYUS x Iran Effective Ceasefire by August 31?$1.00Jul 30, 16:45 UTC
REDEEMWill there be no change in Fed interest rates after the July 2026 meeting?$12.61Jul 29, 20:07 UTC
TRADESELLBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$0.99Jul 29, 08:41 UTC
TRADEBUYBitcoin Up or Down - July 29, 4:40AM-4:45AM ET$1.02Jul 29, 08:41 UTC

Persistent ledger timeline

persistent

No trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.

Wallet edge sanity

Needs review

40/100

read-only

Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.

Required before treating wallet flow as useful

Resolved-only performance

0% win rate over 14 closed markets.

Copy-lag simulation

A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.

Liquidity and exit

Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.

Resolution-source risk

The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.

Survivorship bias

Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.

Wallet intelligence filter

Watch only

14/100

no PredictFoliopaper-only

Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.

Wallet signal

pass

49 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 33/100.

Resolved-only track record

review

14 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.

Cost / slippage

missing

No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.

Resolution risk

missing

No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.

Market liquidity

missing

No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.

Copy-lag simulation

missing

No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.

Paper-only attribution

missing

No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.

Ledger intelligence

persistent

7d volume

$0.00

0 trades

30d volume

$0.00

0 trades

Buy share

50%

Sample

low

0 ledger trades

No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.

Profile dimensions

Activity60 / 100

Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.

Performance confidence47 / 100

How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.

Specialization0 / 100

Share of trades concentrated in their top category.

Early-entry43 / 100

Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.

Copy-risk33 / 100

How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.

Trades (all time): 49
Avg trade size: $1.27
Top category: —
Category concentration: 0%
First seen: Jul 17, 04:41 UTC
Last active: Aug 12, 08:10 UTC
Win rate sample: 14 closed

The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.

View on Polymarket View on Polygonscan

updated 00:33:36 UTC·src:Polymarket Data