Prudent-Engineer
0x19344b25b205a60fa61fa99621f01a22df3c0a4b
Wallet digest
Activity score
72/100
Performance measurable
Open positions
107
Open notional
$14.8K
Total PnL
$-45.2K
Realised
$-356.51
Win rate
47%
19 closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 107- YES
Xi Jinping out before 2027?
272258 shares @ 8.1¢·now 4.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$12.7K
$-9.4K
- YES
Will Donald Trump win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
58064 shares @ 8.0¢·now 3.2¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$1.9K
$-2.8K
- YES
Will Volodymyr Zelenskyy win the Nobel Peace Prize in 2026?
1666 shares @ 6.9¢·now 7.3¢·exp Oct 10, 2026$122.42
$8.11
- YES
Will Xi Jinping purge Cai Qi in 2026?
1500 shares @ 4.8¢·now 4.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$68.26
$-4.46
- YES
Putin out as President of Russia by December 31, 2026?
500 shares @ 11.0¢·now 8.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$42.50
$-12.50
- YES
Xi Jinping divorce before 2027?
2075 shares @ 1.6¢·now 1.7¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$34.24
$1.52
- YES
Will Masoud Pezeshkian be head of state in Iran end of 2026?
3253 shares @ 6.1¢·now 0.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$17.89
$-180.99
- YES
Iran leadership change by December 31?
70 shares @ 16.0¢·now 20.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$14.35
$3.15
- NO
Will Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?
55 shares @ 7.0¢·now 7.0¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.85
$0.00
- YES
Will the U.S. invade Cuba in 2026?
5 shares @ 25.0¢·now 12.5¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$0.63
$-0.63
Recent activity
- YIELD$1.15Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.17Jul 27, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$2.31Jul 26, 23:30 UTC
- YIELD$1.19Jul 26, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.18Jul 25, 00:15 UTC
- YIELD$1.21Jul 24, 00:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$3.50Jul 23, 18:27 UTC
- YIELD$1.20Jul 23, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.21Jul 22, 00:14 UTC
- YIELD$1.25Jul 21, 00:14 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Xi Jinping visit US before 2027?$0.35Jul 20, 12:02 UTC
- YIELD$1.20Jul 20, 00:10 UTC
- YIELD$1.20Jul 19, 00:11 UTC
- YIELD$1.19Jul 18, 00:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$3.58Jul 17, 02:05 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping out before 2027?$4.93Jul 17, 02:04 UTC
- YIELD$1.18Jul 17, 00:13 UTC
- YIELD$1.18Jul 16, 00:10 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping divorce before 2027?$1.24Jul 15, 17:57 UTC
- TRADEBUYXi Jinping divorce before 2027?$0.03Jul 15, 04:44 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Needs review
34/100Useful as a watchlist input, but the edge claim still needs resolved history, cost, and source checks.
Open-position PnL can disappear if liquidity, exit price, or final resolution changes.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
47% win rate over 19 closed markets.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Watch only
0/100Wallet flow is useful for attention, but missing/review stages stop it from becoming paper attribution.
21 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 55/100.
19 closed markets. Enough to inspect, not enough to trust.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 21
- Avg trade size
- $1.86
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 29, 03:23 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 28, 00:15 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 19 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.