Plush-Reminder
0x196496d512ecb6b192a61aad1a115068fe8b5e04
Wallet digest
Activity score
75/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
28
Open notional
$354.78
Total PnL
$-551.36
Realised
$-15.91
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 28- NO
Will GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?
143 shares @ 70.0¢·now 74.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$105.71
$5.71
- NO
Will Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?
72 shares @ 69.0¢·now 99.3¢·exp Jul 28, 2026$71.96
$21.96
- NO
Will fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?
226 shares @ 31.0¢·now 30.5¢·exp Aug 2, 2026$68.87
$-1.13
- NO
Will gas hit $4.25 (High) by August 31?
193 shares @ 31.1¢·now 26.0¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$50.11
$-9.89
- NO
Will Houthis successfully target shipping on July 31, 2026?
28 shares @ 71.3¢·now 75.5¢·exp Jul 31, 2026$21.19
$1.19
- NO
Will the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?
31 shares @ 65.0¢·now 63.5¢·exp Aug 7, 2026$19.54
$-0.46
- NO
Another Frontier Math Problem Solved by September 30, 2026?
21 shares @ 47.0¢·now 44.0¢·exp Sep 30, 2026$9.36
$-0.64
- NO
Will gas hit $4.50 (High) by August 31?
14 shares @ 69.0¢·now 55.5¢·exp Aug 31, 2026$8.04
$-1.96
- NO
Will Trump say "UFC" this week?
223 shares @ 70.0¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-155.94
- NO
Will Trump say "Bahrain" this week?
186 shares @ 32.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 31, 2026$0.00
$-60.00
Recent activity
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?$20.00Jul 30, 18:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?$20.00Jul 30, 18:51 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?$20.00Jul 30, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill fewer than 200 ships transit the Bab el-Mandeb Strait between July 27-August 2?$10.00Jul 30, 18:50 UTC
- TRADEBUYAnother Frontier Math Problem Solved by September 30, 2026?$10.21Jul 30, 18:33 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit $4.25 (High) by August 31?$20.58Jul 30, 18:13 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit $4.25 (High) by August 31?$10.29Jul 30, 18:12 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Houthis successfully target shipping on July 31, 2026?$20.00Jul 30, 15:31 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit $4.25 (High) by August 31?$10.25Jul 30, 12:46 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit $4.25 (High) by August 31?$20.51Jul 30, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill gas hit $4.50 (High) by August 31?$10.12Jul 30, 12:44 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the US add between 50k and 100k jobs in July?$20.35Jul 30, 09:53 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill GPT-6 be released by August 31, 2026?$101.20Jul 30, 09:48 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?$40.00Jul 28, 09:41 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Trump and Netanyahu hug on Tuesday?$10.00Jul 28, 09:41 UTC
- REDEEMGPT-5.6 released by July 8, 2026?$51.72Jul 9, 06:02 UTC
- REDEEMWill GPT-5.6 be released on July 7, 2026?$41.10Jul 8, 06:05 UTC
- REDEEMTony Gonzales charged by June 30?$107.22Jul 4, 13:06 UTC
- REDEEMEbola case in the US by June 30?$508.48Jul 1, 13:09 UTC
- REDEEMUS announces Cuba oil sanction relief by June 30?$80.05Jul 1, 06:22 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Use this wallet as an attention signal only, then verify liquidity and resolution risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 2 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
29 live trades, 0 ledger trades, copy-risk 58/100.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 29
- Avg trade size
- $19.57
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Jun 8, 17:55 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 30, 18:52 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 2 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.