Creative-Vinegar
0x198874eebadfe0012d8471bbd8dd321740f2b617
Wallet digest
Activity score
60/100
Performance: thin sample
Open positions
18
Open notional
$9.82
Total PnL
$-45.40
Realised
$0.01
Win rate
n/a
too few closed
Largest open positions
showing 10 of 18- NO
1 megaton meteor strike in 2026?
7 shares @ 98.2¢·now 98.9¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$6.72
$0.04
- NO
10.0 or above earthquake before 2027?
3 shares @ 95.1¢·now 98.3¢·exp Dec 31, 2026$3.10
$0.10
- NO
Will the price of Solana be above $120 on January 9?
5272 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Jan 9, 2026$0.00
$-5.27
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $1,600 and $1,700 on February 25?
3170 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Feb 25, 2026$0.00
$-7.39
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,400 and $3,500 on December 16?
3102 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-3.10
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be less than $60,000 on March 4?
2161 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Mar 4, 2026$0.00
$-4.32
- YES
Will the price of Ethereum be between $3,300 and $3,400 on December 16?
2063 shares @ 0.1¢·now 0.0¢·exp Dec 16, 2025$0.00
$-2.06
- YES
Will Bitcoin reach $81,000 on April 27?
1071 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 28, 2026$0.00
$-2.14
- YES
Will Solana dip to $80 on May 12?
1070 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp May 13, 2026$0.00
$-2.14
- YES
Will the price of Bitcoin be between $62,000 and $64,000 on April 7?
1068 shares @ 0.2¢·now 0.0¢·exp Apr 7, 2026$0.00
$-2.14
Recent activity
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 15?$8.03Jul 15, 16:16 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be above $68,000 on July 15?$8.00Jul 15, 09:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on July 3?$5.22Jul 3, 16:36 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $52,000 and $54,000 on July 3?$5.20Jul 2, 09:52 UTC
- REDEEMWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?$6.74Jun 30, 22:52 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill S&P 500 (SPX) hit $6,000 (LOW) in June?$6.73Jun 26, 14:11 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Ethereum be above $2,000 on June 4?$2.13Jun 4, 05:49 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 22?$2.13May 23, 02:55 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20?$1.1KMay 21, 05:04 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 20?$1.1KMay 21, 02:38 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 20?$1.1KMay 20, 18:15 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.60 and $1.70 on May 20?$1.1KMay 20, 07:45 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 19?$1.1KMay 20, 05:58 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $2,000 on May 19?$1.1KMay 20, 02:35 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 19?$1.1KMay 19, 18:22 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of Bitcoin be between $72,000 and $74,000 on May 19?$1.1KMay 19, 08:03 UTC
- REDEEMWill Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 18?$1.1KMay 19, 04:25 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill Ethereum dip to $1,850 on May 18?$1.1KMay 19, 03:07 UTC
- REDEEMWill the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 18?$1.1KMay 18, 18:24 UTC
- TRADEBUYWill the price of XRP be between $1.50 and $1.60 on May 18?$1.1KMay 18, 07:31 UTC
Persistent ledger timeline
persistentNo trades for this wallet in Orrery's persistent ledger yet. The whale-ingest cron writes ≥ $5k trades every 10 minutes; check back after a recovery window.
Wallet edge sanity
Do not mirror
0/100Treat this wallet as noise/context only until resolved history, copy-risk, and liquidity checks improve.
Win rate is hidden until at least 3 closed markets exist for this wallet.
Large size, concentration, or thin history makes this wallet unsafe to imitate.
Many positions were entered near obvious prices, which can inflate win rate while hiding tail risk.
Required before treating wallet flow as useful
Only 1 closed markets; headline win rate is intentionally hidden.
A wallet trade is not useful unless a later follower could still enter after spread, slippage, and latency.
Large positions need enough depth to exit; mark-to-market PnL is not cash.
The trade still needs source, expiry, dispute, and settlement checks at the market level.
Leaderboards surface visible winners; losing or abandoned wallets disappear from attention.
Wallet intelligence filter
Blocked
0/100Wallet flow is blocked as an intelligence signal until hard failures are fixed.
Wallet activity exists, but copy-risk is too high for interpretation.
Too few closed markets. Do not infer edge from open PnL or leaderboard rank.
No market-level spread or simulated execution cost is attached yet.
No source/expiry/dispute risk context is attached yet.
No market liquidity/depth context is attached yet.
No delayed-entry simulation is attached yet.
No paper receipts attribute this wallet signal to later outcomes yet.
Ledger intelligence
persistent7d volume
$0.00
0 trades
30d volume
$0.00
0 trades
Buy share
50%
Sample
low
0 ledger trades
No persistent whale trades for this wallet yet. The live Data API score above can still be useful, but the durable ledger sample is empty.
Profile dimensions
Trade count + how recently they were active. Low = dormant.
How trustworthy the win-rate number is, based on sample size of closed markets.
Share of trades concentrated in their top category.
Share of positions taken while the market was still uncertain (30–70¢) rather than after direction was obvious.
How risky to blindly copy. Higher = riskier — large size, single-position exposure, or thin win-rate sample.
- Trades (all time)
- 33
- Avg trade size
- $458.41
- Top category
- —
- Category concentration
- 0%
- First seen
- Feb 19, 09:11 UTC
- Last active
- Jul 15, 16:16 UTC
- Win rate sample
- 1 closed
The single Activity score is kept for the leaderboard sort. The five dimensions above are the canonical read; copy-risk is inverted so green means lower risk of over-reading the wallet.